Thread: Atlantic Hurricane SANDY

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hurricane sandy advisory number 12
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012
500 am edt thu oct 25 2012

...category two hurricane sandy preparing to move off the
northeastern coast of cuba...


summary of 500 am edt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.9n 75.8w
about 185 mi...300 km s of the central bahamas
about 40 mi...75 km e of holguin cuba
maximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/h
present movement...n or 5 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
minimum central pressure...960 mb...28.35 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the hurricane warning for jamaica has been discontinued.

the tropical storm warning along the florida east coast has been
extended northward to flagler beach.

a tropical storm watch has been issued for the northeastern florida
coast from fernandina beach southward to north of flagler beach.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* cuban provinces of camaguey...las tunas...granma...santiago de
cuba...holguin...and guantanamo
* the ragged islands in the southeastern bahamas
* the central bahamas
* the northwestern bahamas

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* haiti
* florida east coast from ocean reef to flagler beach
* lake okeechobee
* the remainder of the southeastern bahamas

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* florida east coast from north of flagler beach to fernandina beach
* florida upper keys from ocean reef to craig key
* florida bay

interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the united
states should monitor the progress of sandy.

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am edt...0900 utc...the eye of hurricane sandy was located
by noaa satellites and cuban radars near latitude 20.9 north...
longitude 75.8 west. Sandy is moving toward the north near 18
mph...30 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected tonight and friday. On the forecast track...the
center of sandy will move off the northeastern coast of cuba this
morning...move near or over the central bahamas by tonight...and
move near or over the northwestern bahamas on friday.

maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph...165 km/h...
with higher gusts. Sandy is still a category two hurricane on the
saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next 48 hours. However...sandy is expected to remain a
hurricane as it moves through the bahamas.

hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km. An air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be
investigating the hurricane later this morning.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions will continue over eastern cuba this
morning...and then gradually subside by this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected to spread across the central and
northwestern bahamas late today and friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the east coast
of florida tonight and friday...and are possible in the watch area
friday night.

rainfall...sandy is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of
6 to 12 inches across haiti...the dominican republic and eastern
cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to
6 inches are expected over portions of the bahamas...with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are possible across the florida keys into southeast and east
central florida.

storm surge...the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above
ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

jamaica...1 to 3 ft
southeastern cuba...4 to 7 ft
central and northwestern bahamas...5 to 8 ft
florida coast within warning area...1 to 2 ft

surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle...and can vary greatly over short distances.
for information specific to your area...please see products issued
by your local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am edt.
next complete advisory...1100 am edt.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a hurricane warning for the central and northwestern portions of the islands as Hurricane Sandy was expected to move over portions of eastern Cuba and the Bahamas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm warnings have also been issued for Haiti and the east coast of Florida.
Hurricane Sandy passed over Jamaica Thursday, making landfall near the capital city of Kingston and bringing 80 mph winds and rain but no significant damage, according to local press reports. The storm should weaken slightly as it passes over Cuba, but is expected to regain strength when as it approaches the Bahamas, according to theNational Hurricane Center.

More info: Bahamas Issues Warning as Hurricane Sandy Nears, Jamaica Spared

hurricane sandy forecast/advisory number 13
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012
1500 utc thu oct 25 2012

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

the government of cuba has discontinued the hurricane warning for
the cuban provinces of camaguey...las tunas...granma...santiago de
cuba...holguin...and guantanamo.

the tropical warning for haiti has been discontinued.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* the ragged islands in the southeastern bahamas
* the central bahamas
* the northwestern bahamas

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* florida east coast from ocean reef to flagler beach
* lake okeechobee
* the remainder of the southeastern bahamas

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* florida east coast from north of flagler beach to fernandina beach
* florida upper keys from ocean reef to craig key
* florida bay

interests elsewhere along the east coast of the united states should
monitor the progress of sandy.

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

hurricane center located near 22.4n 75.5w at 25/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 964 mb
max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 25ne 25se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 50ne 50se 40sw 30nw.
34 kt.......120ne 120se 70sw 60nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 270se 0sw 180nw.
winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

repeat...center located near 22.4n 75.5w at 25/1500z
at 25/1200z center was located near 21.6n 75.5w

forecast valid 26/0000z 24.4n 75.6w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 70sw 80nw.

forecast valid 26/1200z 26.2n 76.4w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 130se 120sw 120nw.

forecast valid 27/0000z 27.4n 76.9w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 90sw 100nw.
34 kt...210ne 140se 150sw 210nw.

forecast valid 27/1200z 28.9n 76.3w
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt...120ne 110se 150sw 150nw.
34 kt...250ne 180se 220sw 250nw.

forecast valid 28/1200z 32.0n 73.5w
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt...120ne 120se 160sw 160nw.
34 kt...340ne 300se 240sw 300nw.

extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 175 nm
on day 4 and 225 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 29/1200z 36.0n 72.0w
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

outlook valid 30/1200z 39.5n 73.5w...post-tropical
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.4n 75.5w

next advisory at 25/2100z

Poor Andrea. Her ship is getting rerouted to Key West.

Originally Posted by nealberk

Poor Andrea. Her ship is getting rerouted to Key West.

I know it. As soon as I saw the message from Carnival, I thought of her. Ah well, here's to hoping she's made the best of it and barely notices the change.

Bummer.

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hurricane sandy advisory number 14
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012
500 pm edt thu oct 25 2012

...sandy near cat island in the central bahamas...
...wind field expanding...


summary of 500 pm edt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...24.5n 75.6w
about 60 mi...95 km se of eleuthera in the bahamas
about 125 mi...200 km ese of nassau in the bahamas
maximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/h
present movement...n or 360 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...963 mb...28.44 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* the ragged islands in the southeastern bahamas
* the central bahamas
* the northwestern bahamas

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* florida east coast from ocean reef to flagler beach
* lake okeechobee
* the remainder of the southeastern bahamas

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* florida east coast from north of flagler beach to fernandina beach
* florida upper keys from ocean reef to craig key
* florida bay

interests elsewhere along the east coast of the united states should
monitor the progress of sandy.

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm edt...2100 utc...the center of hurricane sandy was located
near latitude 24.5 north...longitude 75.6 west. Sandy is moving
toward the north near 20 mph...32 km/h. A turn toward the northwest
and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and friday...
followed by a turn back toward the north and north-northeast friday
night and saturday. On the forecast track...the center of sandy
will continue moving through the central bahamas tonight and move
near the northwestern bahamas on friday.

maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph...165 km/h...with higher
gusts. Sandy is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours...but sandy is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km. Sandy is expected to grow larger in size during the
next couple of days. Cat island in the bahamas recently reported a
sustained wind of 60 mph...96 km/h.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb...28.44 inches. Cat
island in the bahamas recently reported a pressure of 969 mb...
28.61 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions will continue spreading across the
central bahamas this evening...and are expected to reach the
northwestern bahamas tonight and friday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward in the warning area along the east
coast of florida this evening through friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area friday night.

rainfall...sandy is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of
6 to 12 inches across haiti and the dominican republic...with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...especially
in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
are expected over portions of the bahamas...with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible across the florida keys into southeast and east-central
florida...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

storm surge...the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above
ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

hurricane warning area in the bahamas...5 to 8 ft
florida coast within warning area...1 to 2 ft

surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle...and can vary greatly over short distances.
for information specific to your area...please see products issued
by your local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm edt.
next complete advisory...1100 pm edt.

But, it looks like she will have an excellent time in Key West!

We have been getting a few light rain bands here already. Flew in late last night, plane was only a little late. Then had to sit for a while longer for the weather to clear and a gate to become available. A few bumps in the air en route, but nothing too dramatic. And no rain, just breezy on the drive home from the airport.

So glad I decided to come home a day early. MIGHT have been a different story today... considering the increased size of the wind field on this thing.

Glad you're home, Sheila. Strange that we're both prepping for the same storm. I've been ordered to purchases groceries later today.

Stay safe and keep us informed! Welcome home.