Thread: Atlantic Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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tropical storm rafael special advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172012
730 pm ast fri oct 12 2012

...low pressure area over the eastern caribbean sea becomes tropical
storm rafael...


summary of 730 pm ast...2330 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.0n 63.1w
about 125 mi...200 km wsw of dominica
about 220 mi...350 km sse of st. Croix
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

a tropical storm warning has been issued for the u. S. Virgin
islands.

the government of antigua has issued a tropical storm warning for
the british virgin islands...anguilla...barbuda...st. Kitts...
nevis...antigua...and montserrat.

the government of curacao has issued a tropical storm warning for
the islands of saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin.

the government of france has issued a tropical storm warning for st.
martin...guadeloupe...desirade...les saintes...marie galante...and
martinique.

the government of st. Lucia has issued a tropical storm warning for
st. Lucia.

a tropical storm watch has been issued for puerto rico...
culebra...and vieques.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* u. S. Virgin islands
* british virgin islands
* anguilla...barbuda...st. Kitts... Nevis...antigua...and montserrat
* saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin
* st. Martin
* guadeloupe...desirade...les saintes...marie galante
* martinique
* st. Lucia

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* puerto rico...culebra...and vieques

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside the united states...please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 730 pm ast...2330 utc...the center of tropical storm rafael was
located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 63.1 west. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on saturday. On the forecast track...the center
of rafael will move through the eastern caribbean tonight...and
then move near or over the virgin islands saturday or saturday
night.

reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight...with
slow strengthening possible saturday through sunday.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km
mainly to the southeast of the center.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected across the lesser
antilles and the virgin islands in the tropical storm warning area
tonight and saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over
puerto rico...culebra...and vieques saturday night and sunday.

rainfall...rafael is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches...over the
lesser antilles and the virgin islands. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides...especially in
mountainous terrain.

surf...dangerous surf conditions are possible in the lesser antilles
and the virgin islands tonight through sunday.


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

Bulletin
tropical storm rafael
intermediate advisory number 8anws
national hurricane center miami fl al172012200 pm ast sun oct 14 2012...
outer bands of rafael still producing rain over the leeward islands...

summary of 200 pm ast...1800 utc...

information----------------------------------------------

location...20.3n 64.4wabout 165 mi...265 km ne of san juan puerto ricoabout 835 mi...1340 km s of bermudamaximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hpresent movement...nnw or 335 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/hminimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches

watches and warnings--------------------

changes with this advisory...none.summary of watches and warnings in effect...a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* bermudaa tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.for storm information specific to your...please monitor productsissued by your national meteorological service.

discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------

at 200 pm ast...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm rafael waslocated near latitude 20.3 north...longitude 64.4 west. Rafael ismoving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and thisgeneral motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turntoward the north is expected on monday. On the forecast track...thecenter of rafael will continue to move away from the virgin islandsand the northern leeward islands today. Rafael is forecast toapproach bermuda on tuesday.maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...andrafael could become a hurricane by late monday.tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 kmmainly to the northeast and east of the center. Noaa buoy 41043...located about 75 miles northwest of the center...has recentlyreported a sustained wind of 40 mph...65 km/h...with a gust to 47 mph...75 km/h.the latest minimum central pressure measured by an air force reservehurricane hunter aircraft was 996 mb...29.41 inches.

hazards affecting land----------------------

rainfall...rafael is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 4to 6 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches...over thelesser antilles. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides...especially in areas of mountainous terrain.rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the virginislands...culebra and vieques.wind...tropical-storm-force winds are possible in bermuda bytuesday morning.surf...swells generated by rafael are expected to affect the eastern-facing beaches of the bahamas during the next few days.these swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions. Please consult products from your localweather office.

next advisory-------------

next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

As the NOAA picture shows above, this storm is predicted to go NORTH. They think he'll arrive at Bermuda on Tues as a Category 1 hurricane. Cruise ships that could be affected are Enchantment of the Seas, Explorer of the Seas and Norwegian Star.

The jet stream has dipped very far south, which is keeping the storm from moving west to the US and Mexico. Whew!

Great input, Mindy! Thank you!

The Carnival Victory was scheduled to make a stop in St Maarten on Saturday, but the ship spent a Fun Day At Sea, instead. We'll keep an eye on the other ships which might be affected.

There is a tropical storm warning in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands , the British Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe and other areas.

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tropical storm rafael advisory number 11
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172012
500 am ast mon oct 15 2012

...rafael expected to become a hurricane later today...


summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...22.5n 65.3w
about 290 mi...465 km n of san juan puerto rico
about 680 mi...1090 km s of bermuda
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h
present movement...nnw or 335 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...988 mb...29.18 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* bermuda

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next
36 hours.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm rafael was
located near latitude 22.5 north...longitude 65.3 west. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/h. This
general motion is expected to continue this morning...followed by
a turn toward the north this afternoon or evening. On the forecast
track...the center of rafael will remain well east of the bahamas
today...and could approach bermuda by late tuesday.

maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and rafael is expected to
become a hurricane later today.

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...rafael is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches over the northern leeward islands with isolated
storm totals of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides...especially in areas
of mountainous terrain.

wind...tropical-storm-force winds are possible in bermuda by
tuesday afternoon or evening.

surf...swells generated by rafael are expected to affect the
eastern-facing beaches of the bahamas during the next few days.
these swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am ast.
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

bulletin
tropical storm rafael advisory number 13
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172012
500 pm ast mon oct 15 2012

...rafael turns northward...
...noaa and u.s. Air force aircraft en route to the storm...


summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...24.1n 65.8w
about 570 mi...915 km s of bermuda
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h
present movement...n or 350 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...985 mb...29.09 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* bermuda

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm rafael was
located near latitude 24.1 north...longitude 65.8 west. Rafael is
moving toward the north near 10 mph...17 km/h. A northward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn
toward the northeast with an additional increase in forward speed
is expected on tuesday and tuesday night. On the forecast track...
the center of rafael will pass near or to the east of bermuda late
tuesday or tuesday night.

maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and rafael could become a
hurricane tonight or on tuesday.

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km
from the center.

estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb...29.09 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...rafael is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches over the northern leeward islands with isolated
storm totals of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. Rafael is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across bermuda.

wind...tropical-storm-force winds are expected in bermuda by
tuesday afternoon or evening.

surf...swells generated by rafael are expected to affect the
eastern-facing beaches of the bahamas...bermuda...and portions of
the united states east coast during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm ast.
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.