Thread: Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Czc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt tue aug 21 2012

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...


the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on newly formed tropical depression nine located about 645 miles east of guadeloupein the lesser antilles.

1. A well-defined low pressure system associated with a tropical wave is located about 425 miles southwest of the cape verde islands. showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization...and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. this system has a high chance...60 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at about 15mph.

2. Disorganized shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure...located offshore of the northeastern coast of mexico...has changed little overnight. Some slow development is still possible before the disturbance moves inland late today or wednesday. This system has a medium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it drifts westward.


elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours.

$$
forecaster kimberlain

Up to 70%

000
abnt20 knhc 212345
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue aug 21 2012

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded tropical storm isaac...located about 435 miles east of
guadeloupe in the lesser antilles.

showers and thunderstorms are dissipating near a weak area of low
pressure located just off the northeastern coast of mexico.
development of this disturbance is not expected before the center
of circulation moves inland along the mexican coast tonight or
early wednesday. This system has a low chance...10 percent...of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
slowly southwestward.

a low pressure system located about 600 miles west-southwest of the
cape verde islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. However...environmental conditions appear
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or
so as the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This
system has a high chance...70 percent...of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster berg

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt wed aug 22 2012

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...
.

showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 650 miles
west-southwest of the cape verde islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for a tropical depression to form later today as
the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This system has
a high chance...90 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.



elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster cangialosi

Anytime now . . .

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tropical Depression Ten

bulletin
tropical depression ten advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al102012
1100 am ast wed aug 22 2012

...tropical depression forms over the eastern tropical atlantic...


summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...12.4n 36.3w
about 860 mi...1385 km wsw of the cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression ten
was located near latitude 12.4 north...longitude 36.3 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next couple of days.

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/zelinksy

bulletin
tropical depression ten advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl al102012
500 pm ast wed aug 22 2012

...tropical depression over the eastern tropical atlantic haschanged little in strength...


summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.1n 37.4w
about 920 mi...1475 km w of the cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression ten was
located near latitude 13.1 north...longitude 37.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next 48
hours...and it could become a tropical storm overnight.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/zelinsky

Looks like TEN wants to head for Bermuda

bulletin
tropical depression ten advisory number 4
nws national hurricane center miami fl al102012
500 am ast thu aug 23 2012

...tropical depression ten moving west-northwestward over thecentral atlantic...


summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.5n 40.6w
about 1110 mi...1790 km w of the cape verde islands
about 1385 mi...2225 km e of the lesser antilles
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression ten was
located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 40.6 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue through
saturday.

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or friday.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster landsea