Thread: Tropical StormErnesto - Caribbean Sea Yukatan

000
wtnt35 knhc 071753
tcpat5

bulletin
hurricane ernesto special advisory number 25
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
200 pm edt tue aug 07 2012

...air force hurricane hunters find that ernesto has become a
hurricane...


Summary of 200 pm edt...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.5n 85.5w
about 185 mi...295 km e of chetumal mexico
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/h
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...983 mb...29.03 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has included the island of cozumel in the
hurricane warning and extended the tropical storm warning northward
along the east coast of the yucatan peninsula to cabo catoche.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* cozumel
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of tulum to cabo catoche on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula
* celestun southward and westward to chilitepec along the gulf coast
of mexico.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm edt...1800 utc...the center of hurricane ernesto was
located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 85.5 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/h. This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight...followed by
a turn toward the west on wednesday. On the forecast track...the
center will continue passing north of the coast of honduras today...
And will cross the east coast of the yucatan peninsula tonight.
The center of ernesto is forecast to move across the yucatan
peninsula late tonight and early wednesday...and emerge over the
bay of campeche by wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130
km/h...with higher gusts. Ernesto is a category one hurricane on
the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible before ernesto reaches the yucatan
peninsula. Weakening is expected as ernesto moves over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.

The minimum central pressure reported by an air force hurricane
hunter aircraft is 983 mb...29.03 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are still possible in the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of honduras through today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of mexico
tonight or early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions
possible by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the gulf coast of mexico in the tropical storm
warning area by wednesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches along the northern coast of honduras...with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches over mountainous terrain. Total
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches are expected over belize...the southern portions of
the yucatan peninsula...and northern guatemala. These rains are
likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the east coast of the yucatan peninsula. A storm surge of 1 to 3
feet above normal tide levels is likely in areas of onshore winds
in the warning area along the gulf coast of mexico. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster pasch

HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

FYI... Headed for Cozumel and Costa Maya

Here is a webcam for Cozumel. Sherry will keep it on for as long as possible.
Cozumel Insider - Cozumel Webcam - Live Ship Pier & Oceanview Images - Cozumel Insider

Costa Maya webcam is off line. If it comes back on I will post the link.

000
wtnt35 knhc 072356
tcpat5

bulletin
hurricane ernesto intermediate advisory number 26a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
700 pm cdt tue aug 07 2012

...ernesto strengthening as it moves quickly toward the
southern yucatan peninsula......landfall expected later
this evening...


Summary of 700 pm cdt...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.7n 87.1w
about 65 mi...105 km e of chetumal mexico
maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h
present movement...wnw or 270 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* cozumel
* coast of belize from belize city northward to the border of mexico

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of tulum to cabo catoche on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula
* south of belize city southward to the border of guatemala
* celestun southward and westward to chilitepec along the gulf coast
of mexico.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 pm cdt...0000 utc...the center of hurricane ernesto was
located near latitude 18.7 north...longitude 87.1 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/h. This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight...followed
by a turn toward the west on wednesday. On the forecast track...
The center will cross the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
this evening. The center of ernesto is forecast to move across the
yucatan peninsula late tonight and early wednesday...and emerge
over the bay of campeche by wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140
km/h...with higher gusts. Ernesto is a category one hurricane on
the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible before ernesto reaches the yucatan
peninsula later this evening. Weakening is expected as ernesto
moves over land.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions are expected to reach the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula in the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along portions of the gulf coast of mexico
in the tropical storm warning area by wednesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches along the northern coast of
honduras...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible over
belize...the yucatan peninsula and northern guatemala. These
rains may produce life threatening flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the east coast of the yucatan peninsula. A storm surge of 1 to 3
feet above normal tide levels is likely in areas of onshore winds
in the warning area along the gulf coast of mexico. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Recent reports from ham radio operators indicate storm surge
flooding of more than 2 feet has occurred on ambergris caye island
belize.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster stewart

Hurricane Ernesto had landfall at Costa Maya a few minutes ago. It is listed as a cat 1 but could be a cat 2. Recon should have gone in but it was cancelled. If I find pics tomorrow I will post them.

000
wtnt35 knhc 081200
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 28a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
700 am cdt wed aug 08 2012

...ernesto weakens while moving over mexico...but heavy rains
continue...


Summary of 700 am cdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.8n 89.8w
about 90 mi...145 km sse of campeche mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...w or 260 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
minimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of belize has changed the hurricane warning to a
tropical storm warning for the coast of belize from belize city
northward to the border of mexico.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* barra de nautla to coatzacoalcos

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* entire coast of belize
* celestun southward and westward to coatzacoalcos along the gulf
coast of mexico
* north of barra de nautla to tuxpan mexico

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am cdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 89.8 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track...the center of ernesto will continue to move across
the southern portion of the yucatan peninsula this morning...and
emerge over the bay of campeche this afternoon. Ernesto is
forecast to move across the southern portion of the bay of campeche
tonight and approach the coast of mexico within the hurricane
warning area on thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph...95
km/h...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as
ernesto moves over land this morning. Restrengthening is forecast
after the center emerges over the bay of campeche...and ernesto
could regain hurricane strength before landfall on thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across the
southern portions of the yucatan peninsula today. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the
gulf coast of mexico by thursday afternoon...with tropical storm
conditions expected by thursday morning.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches over belize...northern guatemala...the yucatan peninsula...
And the mexican states of tabasco and veracruz. These rains may
produce life threatening flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is likely in areas of onshore winds in the warning area along the
gulf coast of mexico. Near the coast...the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1000 am cdt.

$$
forecaster pasch

000
wtnt35 knhc 081449
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 29
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
1000 am cdt wed aug 08 2012

...ernesto continues to weaken over mexico while producing very
heavy rains...


Summary of 1000 am cdt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...18.7n 90.4w
about 265 mi...425 km e of coatzacoalcos mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 260 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the east coast of the yucatan peninsula from chetumal to
tulum...changed the hurricane warning to a hurricane watch from
barra de nautla to coatzacoalcos...and discontinued the tropical
storm warning north of barra de nautala to tuxpan.

The government of belize has discontinued the tropical storm warning
from belize city to the border of mexico.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* barra de nautla to coatzacoalcos

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* celestun to barra de nautla along the gulf coast of mexico

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 am cdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 18.7 north...longitude 90.4 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with some
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track...the center will
continue to move over the southern yucatan peninsula today...
Emerge into the extreme southern bay of campeche tonight...and be
near the gulf coast of mexico in the hurricane watch area on
thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...85
km/h...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while
ernesto continues to move over land. Some restrengthening is
expected after the center moves back over the bay of campeche
tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across the
southern portions of the yucatan peninsula today...and elsewhere in
the tropical storm warning area tonight and thursday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on thursday.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches over belize...northern guatemala...the yucatan peninsula...
And the mexican states of tabasco and veracruz. These rains may
produce life threatening flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is likely in areas of onshore winds in the warning area along the
gulf coast of mexico. Near the coast...the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...100 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...400 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster pasch

Here's s recent image of Ernesto from NASA



NASA IMAGE: this is an image from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto approaching the Yucatan on August 7 at 4:15 p.m. EDT. Ernesto made landfall in the Yucatan and is currently tracking west, across land. At 10 a.m. EDT Ernesto's max. winds were near 50 mph (85 kmh) and it was 265 miles (425 km) east of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, near 18.7 North and 90.4 West.

000
wtnt35 knhc 081731
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 29a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
100 pm cdt wed aug 08 2012

...ernesto headed for the extreme southern bay of campeche...
Continues to produce very heavy rains over portions of mexico and
central america...


Summary of 100 pm cdt...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.8n 90.9w
about 60 mi...95 km e of ciudad del carmen mexico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...998 mb...29.47 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* barra de nautla to coatzacoalcos

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* celestun to barra de nautla along the gulf coast of mexico

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 pm cdt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 90.9 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with some
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track...the center will
continue to move over the southern yucatan peninsula for the next
few hours...emerge into the extreme southern bay of campeche later
today...and be near the gulf coast of mexico in the hurricane watch
area on thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph...75
km/h...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while
ernesto continues to move over land. Some restrengthening is
expected after the center moves back over the bay of campeche later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across the
southern portions of the yucatan peninsula today...and elsewhere in
the tropical storm warning area tonight and thursday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on thursday.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches over belize...northern guatemala...the yucatan peninsula...
And the mexican states of tabasco and veracruz. These rains may
produce life threatening flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is likely in areas of onshore winds in the warning area along the
gulf coast of mexico. Near the coast...the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...400 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster pasch

000
wtnt35 knhc 082034
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 30
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
400 pm cdt wed aug 08 2012

...ernesto moving into the extreme southern bay of campeche...
Continues to produce very heavy rains over portions of mexico and
central america...


Summary of 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.9n 91.5w
about 30 mi...50 km ne of ciudad del carmen mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* barra de nautla to coatzacoalcos

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* celestun to barra de nautla along the gulf coast of mexico

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 18.9 north...longitude 91.5 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with some
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track...the center will
move over the extreme southern bay of campeche tonight and early
thursday...and be near or over the gulf coast of mexico in the
hurricane watch area later on thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and early thursday.
Weakening is expected after the center moves over land later on
thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center. Ciudad del carmen recently reported sustained
winds of 46 mph...74 km/h with a gust to 58 mph...93 km/h.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward
across the tropical storm warning area tonight and thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on
thursday.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum of 12 inches
over the mexican states of tabasco and veracruz. Ernesto is
expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
over northern belize...northern guatemala...the southern yucatan
peninsula. These rains may produce life threatening flash floods
and mud slides over higher terrain areas.

Storm surge...a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
is likely in areas of onshore winds in the warning area along the
gulf coast of mexico. Near the coast...the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster pasch