Thread: Tropical StormErnesto - Caribbean Sea Yukatan

000
wtnt35 knhc 061753
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 20a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
200 pm edt mon aug 06 2012

...ernesto could become a hurricane tonight...


Summary of 200 pm edt...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.2n 81.1w
about 160 mi...260 km ene of cabo gracias a dios on nic/hon border
about 365 mi...585 km e of isla roatan honduras
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm edt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 81.1 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track...the center will be passing north of the coast
of honduras tonight and tuesday...and approach the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula early wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and ernesto could become a
hurricane by tonight. Additional strengthening is possible prior
to landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras tonight through tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico by early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches along the northern coast of honduras and the northeast coast
of nicaragua...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
southern portion of the yucatan peninsula and belize. These rains
are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over the
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster pasch

Hi everybody! Is it time for me to panic yet? I've missed you guys.

Hi Mindy HUGS Not to panic yet

000
wtnt35 knhc 062039
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 21
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
500 pm edt mon aug 06 2012

...ernesto has changed little in strength this afternoon...


Summary of 500 pm edt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.2n 81.6w
about 135 mi...215 km ne of cabo gracias a dios on nic/hon border
about 330 mi...535 km e of isla roatan honduras
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of belize has changed the hurricane watch to a
hurricane warning for the entire coast of belize.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm edt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 81.6 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track...the center will be passing north of the coast
of honduras tonight and tuesday...and be near the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula early wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And ernesto could become a hurricane by early tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras tonight through tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico by early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches along the northern coast of honduras and the northeast coast
of nicaragua...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
southern portion of the yucatan peninsula and belize. These rains
are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied
by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm edt.

$$
forecaster pasch

Originally Posted by sue miller

000
wtnt35 knhc 062039
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 21
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
500 pm edt mon aug 06 2012

...ernesto has changed little in strength this afternoon...


Summary of 500 pm edt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.2n 81.6w
about 135 mi...215 km ne of cabo gracias a dios on nic/hon border
about 330 mi...535 km e of isla roatan honduras
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of belize has changed the hurricane watch to a
hurricane warning for the entire coast of belize.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm edt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 81.6 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track...the center will be passing north of the coast
of honduras tonight and tuesday...and be near the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula early wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And ernesto could become a hurricane by early tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras tonight through tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico by early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches along the northern coast of honduras and the northeast coast
of nicaragua...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
southern portion of the yucatan peninsula and belize. These rains
are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied
by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm edt.

$$
forecaster pasch

Thanks for the Update, Sue. Let's see what E decides to do overnight - let's hope he dies down.

000
wtnt35 knhc 062333
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 21a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
800 pm edt mon aug 06 2012

...ernesto slowly organizing over the northwestern caribbean
sea...reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate storm...


Summary of 800 pm edt...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.5n 82.1w
about 295 mi...475 km e of isla roatan honduras
about 415 mi...670 km e of belize
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm edt...0000 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 82.1 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track...the center will be passing north of the coast
of honduras tonight and tuesday...and be near the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula early wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And ernesto could become a hurricane by early tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center. A noaa buoy located just north of the center of
ernesto recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph...83 km/h and
a gust to 60 mph...97 km/h.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras tonight through tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico by early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches along the northern coast of honduras and the northeast coast
of nicaragua...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
southern portion of the yucatan peninsula and belize. These rains
are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied
by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm edt.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtnt35 knhc 070240
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 22
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
1100 pm edt mon aug 06 2012

...reconnaissance aircraft finds ernesto has not strengthened...


Summary of 1100 pm edt...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...17.0n 82.7w
about 265 mi...425 km e of isla roatan honduras
about 365 mi...585 km e of belize city
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm edt...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 82.7 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track...the center will be passing north of the coast
of honduras tonight and tuesday...and be near the east coast of
the yucatan peninsula early wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And ernesto is forecast to become a hurricane by tuesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...
205 km...mainly northeast and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an air force
reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 994 mb...29.35 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras tonight through tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico by early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches along the northern coast of honduras and the northeast coast
of nicaragua...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
southern portion of the yucatan peninsula and belize. These rains
are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied
by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am edt.
Next complete advisory...500 am edt.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtnt35 knhc 071211
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 23a...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
800 am edt tue aug 07 2012

corrected headline.

...ernesto continues to head toward the yucatan peninsula...


Summary of 800 am edt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.8n 84.4w
about 250 mi...405 km e of belize city
about 180 mi...285 km ne of isla roatan honduras
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...989 mb...29.20 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has replaced the tropical storm watch
with a tropical storm warning for the west coast of the yucatan
peninsula from celestun southward and westward to chilitepec.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to punta allen on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of punta allen to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula
* from celestun southward to chilitepec along the west coast of
the yucatan peninsula.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am edt...1200 utc...
At 800 am edt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 84.4 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight...followed by
a turn toward the west on wednesday. On the forecast track...the
center will be passing north of the coast of honduras today...and
will approach the east coast of the yucatan peninsula tonight. The
center of ernesto is forecast to move across the yucatan peninsula
late tonight and early wednesday...and emerge over the bay of
campeche wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected...and ernesto is forecast to
become a hurricane before it reaches the yucatan peninsula.
Weakening is expected as ernesto moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from air force hurricane
hunter data is 989 mb...29.20 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the coast of honduras through today. Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and mexico
tonight or early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions possible
by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the west coast of the yucatan peninsula by wednesday
afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches along the northern coast of honduras...with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches over mountainous terrain. Total
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches are expected over belize...the southern portions of
the yucatan peninsula...and northern guatemala. These rains are
likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied
by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am edt.

$$
forecaster brown

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras (AP) — Tropical Storm Ernesto swirled along Honduras' northern coast early Tuesday, bringing the threat of torrential rains as it headed toward landfall as a possible hurricane near Mexico's border with Belize.
Nicaraguan authorities moved some people from low-lying areas, while Honduran officials urged people along its Caribbean coast to stay alert.
With Ernesto predicted to stay at sea while passing along Honduras' northern coast during the day, Honduran authorities were monitoring the storm but there were no immediate plans to evacuate people, Roberto Diaz, operations chief of the country's Contingencies Commission, said Monday night.
"We don't think is necessary to evacuate people at this point," Diaz said. "We don't want to create collective panic ... and we think that ordering an evacuation would create hysteria that would affect the population more than the storm itself."
Authorities sent enough food packages to the sparsely populated area to feed 600 families for two weeks, Diaz said.
On Tuesday morning, Ernesto was centered about 180 miles (285 kilometers) northeast of Honduras' Roatan island, a tourist haven, and 250 miles (405 kilometers) east of Belize City. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).
Rain began falling Monday night and the region between Cabo Gracias a Dios and the city of Trujillo already had received about one inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain, Diaz said.
Officials in Nicaragua evacuated hundreds of people living along the coast and near the border with Honduras, Guillermo Gonzalez, who is in charge of the country's emergency services, told local television.
Ernesto could drop up to five inches (13 centimeters) of rain along Honduras' coast and the northeastern shores of Nicaragua, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
After passing Honduras, the storm was expected to grow to hurricane force before moving ashore near the Belize-Mexico border early Wednesday, passing near the jungle Mayan ruins of Calakmul and eventually entering the southern Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Gulf coast near the city of Veracruz.
Hurricane warnings were posted for the entire coast of Belize and the southern half of Mexico's Caribbean Yucatan coast.
Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Honduras coast and for the northern part of the Yucatan coast up to Cancun.
Mexican authorities warned of possible flooding in an area where swollen rivers in the past have swept away houses, livestock and people and collapsed mountainsides.

000
wtnt35 knhc 071455
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm ernesto advisory number 24
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
1100 am edt tue aug 07 2012

...ernesto expected to make landfall on the yucatan peninsula
tonight...


Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...18.1n 85.0w
about 220 mi...350 km e of chetumal mexico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...989 mb...29.21 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has extended the hurricane warning
northward to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* chetumal to tulum on the east coast of the yucatan peninsula
* the entire coast of belize

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from the honduras/nicaragua border westward
to punta sal...including the bay islands
* north of tulum to cancun on the east coast of the yucatan
peninsula
* celestun southward and westward to chilitepec along the gulf coast
of mexico.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from west of punta sal to the
honduras/guatemala border

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 18.1 north...longitude 85.0 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/h. This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight...followed by
a turn toward the west on wednesday. On the forecast track...the
center will continue passing north of the coast of honduras today...
And will cross the east coast of the yucatan peninsula tonight.
The center of ernesto is forecast to move across the yucatan
peninsula late tonight and early wednesday...and emerge over the
bay of campeche by wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected...and ernesto is forecast to
become a hurricane before it reaches the yucatan peninsula.
Weakening is expected as ernesto moves over land.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an air force hurricane
hunter aircraft was 989 mb...29.21 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are still possible in the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of honduras through today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coasts of belize and
mexico tonight or early wednesday...with tropical storm conditions
possible by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the gulf coast of mexico in the tropical storm
warning area by wednesday afternoon.

Rainfall...ernesto is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches along the northern coast of honduras...with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches over mountainous terrain. Total
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches are expected over belize...the southern portions of
the yucatan peninsula...and northern guatemala. These rains are
likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mud slides over
higher terrain.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the east coast of the yucatan peninsula. A storm surge of 1 to 3
feet above normal tide levels is likely in areas of onshore winds
in the warning area along the gulf coast of mexico. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster pasch