Thread: Tropical StormErnesto - Caribbean Sea Yukatan

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tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 6a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
200 am ast fri aug 03 2012

...center of ernesto passing north of barbados...expected to moveacross the northern windward islands during the next few hours...


summary of 200 am ast...0600 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.6n 59.7w
about 35 mi...55 km nnw of barbados
about 90 mi...145 km e of st. Lucia
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 23 mph...37 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* barbados...st. Vincent and the grenadines...and dominica
* st. Lucia
* martinique and guadeloupe

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* grenada and its dependencies

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next
12 hours.

interests elsewhere in the lesser antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am ast...0600 utc...data from the barbados radar and an air
force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the center of
tropical storm ernesto was located near latitude 13.6 north...
longitude 59.7 west. Ernesto is moving quickly toward the west near
23 mph...37 km/h....and this general motion is expected to continue
for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track...the center of
ernesto is expected to move across the northern windward islands
during the next few hours...and move into the eastern caribbean sea
by friday afternoon.

maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
...mainly to the north and northeast of the center.

the latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area overnight through friday.

rainfall...total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are expected across the
windward islands through friday.

surf...large waves generated by ernesto will be affecting the
tropical storm warning area over the next day or two. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
forecaster brennan

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wtnt35 knhc 030844
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tropical storm ernesto advisory number 7
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
500 am ast fri aug 03 2012

...ernesto a little weaker...expected to move across portions of thewindward islands this morning...


summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.5n 60.7w
about 30 mi...45 km se of st. Lucia
about 35 mi...60 km ene of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 24 mph...39 km/h
minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the government of barbados has discontinued the tropical storm
warning for barbados and st. Vincent and the grenadines.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* dominica
* st. Lucia
* martinique and guadeloupe

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* grenada and its dependencies

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next
12 hours.

interests elsewhere in the lesser antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 13.5 north...longitude 60.7 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 24 mph...39 km/h...and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track...the center of
ernesto will move very near st. Lucia and st. Vincent in the next
few hours and then move into the eastern caribbean sea later this
morning.

data from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph...75
km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185
km...mainly to the north and east of the center.

the minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
1004 mb...29.65 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through midday today.

rainfall...total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are expected across the
windward islands through today.

surf...large waves generated by ernesto will be affecting the
tropical storm warning area over the next day or two. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am ast.
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster brennan

Good News for Barbados!!

It appears that Ernesto skirted them to the north, and that they have only received the weakest part of the system. So far, there are no reports of major damage or even any super intense weather there.

Now, St. Lucia . . . we wait

Ernesto is just barely to the S of St. Lucia, moving W. They may get the center northward, and the north side of the storm is where most of the convection is...

Found a brief report from St. Lucia:

Strong winds all night but no rain until now - Ernesto just arrived. Looking south to Castries, the island has disappeared in raincloud. To the north it remains clear looking out to Martinique but another 5 minutes and that will disappear too. Rain coming in sheets each time the wind gusts. Looks as if all the weather in this storm is to the north of its centre.

As for what MAY lie ahead . . .

Attachment 43549

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tropical storm ernesto intermediate advisory number 7a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
800 am ast fri aug 03 2012

...wind gust to 63 mph in saint lucia as the center of ernesto movesnearby...


summary of 800 am ast...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.5n 61.5w
about 40 mi...65 km wsw of st. Lucia
about 25 mi...45 km wnw of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 24 mph...39 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the government of trinidad has discontinued the tropical storm
watch for grenada and its dependencies.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* dominica
* st. Lucia
* martinique and guadeloupe


interests elsewhere in the lesser antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.



discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
radar from guadeloupe and data from a reconnaissance plane indicate
that the center of ernesto moved over or very near saint lucia
during the past hour. At 800 am ast...1200 utc...the center of
tropical storm ernesto was located near latitude 13.5 north...
longitude 61.5 west. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 24
mph...39 km/h...and this motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On
the forecast track...the center of ernesto will move away from the
windward islands and farther into the eastern caribbean sea later
this morning.

maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185
km...mainly to the north and east of the center. St. Lucia recently
reported a wind gust of 63 mph...102 km/h...and barbados just
reported sustained winds of 43 mph...68 km/h.

the estimated minimum central central pressure from a reconnaissance
aircraft was 1002 mb...29.49 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area through midday today.

rainfall...total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are expected across the
windward islands through today.

surf...large waves generated by ernesto will be affecting the
tropical storm warning area today. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster avila

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tropical storm ernesto advisory number 9
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
500 pm ast fri aug 03 2012

...ernesto moving quickly through the southeastern caribbean sea...


summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.9n 64.1w
about 210 mi...335 km w of st. Lucia
about 340 mi...545 km sse of san juan puerto rico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 21 mph...33 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 13.9 north...longitude 64.1 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track ernesto will be moving across the eastern and
central caribbean sea during the next 48 hours.

maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today but some
strengthening is forecast thereafter.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165
km...mainly to the north and east of the center.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are still possible across the
windward islands through tonight.


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster blake

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tropical storm ernesto advisory number 11
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052012
500 am ast sat aug 04 2012

...ernesto a little stronger...interests in jamaica should monitorits progress...


summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.1n 67.2w
about 305 mi...490 km ssw of san juan puerto rico
about 690 mi...1115 km ese of kingston jamaica
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

interests in jamaica should monitor the progress of ernesto. A
tropical storm watch or warning may be required for portions of
jamaica later today.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm ernesto was
located near latitude 14.1 north...longitude 67.2 west. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track the center of ernesto will move across the eastern
and central caribbean sea over the weekend and pass near or south of
jamaica on sunday.

maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/h...
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days and ernesto is expected to become a hurricane
on sunday.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are possible on jamaica by sunday
afternoon.


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster brennan