Thread: Hurricane Kenneth - S of the Baja

000
abpz20 knhc 191141
twoep

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
400 am pst sat nov 19 2011

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located about
500 miles south of acapulco mexico has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for this system to become a tropical depression
during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. this system has a high chance...70 percent...of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster berg

Tropical Depression Thirteen E

000
wtpz33 knhc 192037
tcpep3

bulletin
tropical depression thirteen-e advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep132011
100 pm pst sat nov 19 2011

...rare mid-november tropical depression forms in the eastern
pacific...


Summary of 100 pm pst...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.0n 101.0w
about 480 mi...775 km s of acapulco mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 pm pst...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression
thirteen-e was located near latitude 10.0 north...longitude 101.0
west. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19
km/h. A west to west-northwestward motion at a nearly constant
speed is expected through monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or
on sunday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...700 pm pst.

$$
forecaster berg

000
wtpz33 knhc 200833
tcpep3

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tropical depression thirteen-e advisory number 3
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep132011
100 am pst sun nov 20 2011

...depression moving westward away from land...expected to become a
tropical storm later today...


Summary of 100 am pst...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.4n 103.7w
about 515 mi...830 km ssw of acapulco mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 am pst...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression
thirteen-e was located near latitude 10.4 north...longitude 103.7
west. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22
km/h...and a general motion toward the west or west-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours...and
depression should become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...700 am pst.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtpz33 knhc 201454
tcpep3

bulletin
tropical depression thirteen-e advisory number 4
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep132011
700 am pst sun nov 20 2011

...depression expected to become a tropical storm later today...


Summary of 700 am pst...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.6n 104.7w
about 580 mi...935 km s of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am pst...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression
thirteen-e was located near latitude 10.6 north...longitude 104.7
west. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph...
20 km/h. A general westward or west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours...and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...100 pm pst.

$$
forecaster brown

It will be named Kenneth if/when it attains Tropical Storm strength.

No threat to land.

Tropical Storm Kenneth

000
wtpz33 knhc 202034
tcpep3

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tropical storm kenneth advisory number 5
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep132011
100 pm pst sun nov 20 2011

...a rare late season tropical storm forms in the eastern pacific...


Summary of 100 pm pst...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...11.5n 105.6w
about 525 mi...845 km s of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 pm pst...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm kenneth was
located near latitude 11.5 north...longitude 105.6 west. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. A turn
toward the west is expected during the next 24 hours...and this
motion should continue through 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...65
km/h...with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
to the northeast of the center..

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...700 pm pst.

$$
forecaster kimberlain