Thread: TROPICAL STORM Rina Western Caribbean (96L)

Key West discussion this afternoon:

HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AN EARLIER RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE
KEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS
WAS MUCH QUICKER AND DEEPER REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH KEPT
ANY CIRCULATION WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE SHIFTED MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH A STRONGER LOW THANKS TO A
MUCH WEAKER UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF...WHILE THE ECMWF
ITSELF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS SOLUTION. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...DID
INCREASE OUR MID PERIOD RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE WESTWARD AND MORE
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT I REMAINED WELL BELOW THE
GFS MOS POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR NUMBERS WILL BE
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD CHANCE ON THIS ISSUANCE. OF COURSE WE WILL SEE
MANY MORE MODEL RUNS UNTIL NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE
ATTENTION ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

ZCZC MIA
TWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICA LDEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEASTOF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCEDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDSAND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

000
abnt20 knhc 221131
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sat oct 22 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary
area of low pressure in the southwestern caribbean sea near san
andres island have not become any better organized since yesterday.
although surface pressures have continued to fall in the
area...environmental conditions appear to be a little bit less
favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day or
two. However...this system still has a high chance...60 percent...
Of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Need to watch this one!

Yep. Still at 60% this morning, but that percentage could increase, as conditios are expected to become more favorable for development.

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sun oct 23 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
centered about 150 miles east-southeast of the nicaragua and
honduras border have changed little in organization early this
morning. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a
little more conducive for development...and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so. This system has a high
chance...60 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
Regardless of development...locally heavy rains and gusty winds
could affect portions of honduras and northeastern nicaragua
through monday.

Tropical Depression
Number 18

000
wtnt33 knhc 232033
tcpat3

bulletin
tropical depression eighteen advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182011
500 pm edt sun oct 23 2011

...tropical depression forms in the western caribbean sea...


Summary of 500 pm edt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.9n 81.9w
about 105 mi...170 km ne of cabo gracias a dios on nic/hon border
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...nw or 325 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of honduras has issued a tropical storm watch from
punta castilla eastward to the nicaragua border.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of honduras from punta castilla eastward to the
nicaragua border

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm edt...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression
eighteen was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 81.9 west.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h.
This general motion is expected to continue tonight...followed by a
turn toward the west-northwest on monday. On the forecast track...
The center of the depression is expected to pass north of the
northeastern coast of honduras during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or
two and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or monday.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by air force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over eastern honduras...with
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mud slides over mountainous terrain.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm edt.

$$
forecaster brown