Thread: TROPICAL STORM Rina Western Caribbean (96L)

I would not mind changing my port of call to Key West. other than going through the remains, it looks pretty good right now.

I love Key West! Even when it rainned the whole time...we had a blast!

Bulletin
tropical storm rina advisory number 19
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182011
400 pm cdt thu oct 27 2011

...air force reserve hurricane hunter reports that rina continues to
weaken...


Summary of 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...19.8n 87.2w
about 50 mi...85 km ssw of cozumel mexico
about 115 mi...185 km ne of chetumal mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...n or 350 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h
minimum central pressure...992 mb...29.29 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the yucatan peninsula south of punta gruesa.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the east and north coasts of the yucatan peninsula from punta
gruesa to progreso

preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the warning area.

Interests in western cuba should monitor the progress of rina.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm rina was
located near latitude 19.8 north...longitude 87.2 west. Rina is
moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/h...and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the east and a decrease
in forward speed are expected on friday. On the forecast track...
The center of rina should move over the northeastern yucatan
peninsula tonight...and then be near or over the northeastern
yucatan peninsula and the adjacent islands on friday.

Reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph...
95 km/h...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours...and rina could weaken to a tropical
depression by saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the hurricane hunter
aircraft is 992 mb...29.29 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are spreading onto the coast of
the yucatan peninsula and the adjacent islands in the tropical storm
warning area. These conditions should spread northward along the
coast and the adjacent islands in the warning area tonight.

Rainfall...rina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over the eastern yucatan peninsula and cozumel through
friday with isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 2 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the right of the track of the center. Near the coast...the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster beven



tropical storm rina discussion number 19
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182011
400 pm cdt thu oct 27 2011

satellite imagery...radar data...and reports from an air force
reserve hurricane hunter indicate that rina continues to weaken.
The previously observed strong convective burst has dissipated...and
there is currently little convection near the center. The aircraft
has reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and surface
wind estimates of 48 kt from the stepped frequency microwave
radiometer. Based on these data...the initial intensity is
decreased to 50 kt.

The initial motion is now 350/6. The tropical cyclone should move
slowly northward near the east coast of the yucatan peninsula for
the next 12-24 hours on the west side of a mid/upper-level ridge
over the caribbean sea. After that...the dynamical models are in
good agreement that a combination of rina weakening to a shallow
vortex and rising low-level pressures to its northwest should cause
rina to turn southward. While there remain differences in the
details...the guidance suggests that rina or its remnants will
meander over the northwest caribbean sea or the adjacent land areas
for the rest of the forecast period. The forecast track after 48
hours shows a slightly faster southward and then south-
southwestward motion than the old forecast. While this track is
near the center of the track guidance envelope...the southward
motion is slower than that of most of the dynamical guidance.

Moderate to strong southerly vertical wind shear is likely to
persist near or over rina for the next 72 hours or so. This...
Along with land interaction and dry air entraining into the
cyclone...should cause continued weakening. Based on this and the
current trends...the new intensity forecast calls for rina to meet
an earlier demise than on the previous advisory...with the cyclone
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 hours and to
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours. The dynamical models
suggest the shear may decrease after 72 hours. However...given the
uncertainties of the structure and location of the remnants of rina
the forecast of remnant low at 120 hours will remain unchanged.

Forecast positions and max winds

init 27/2100z 19.8n 87.2w 50 kt 60 mph
12h 28/0600z 20.6n 87.2w 45 kt 50 mph...inland
24h 28/1800z 21.3n 87.1w 40 kt 45 mph...inland
36h 29/0600z 21.2n 86.5w 35 kt 40 mph...over water
48h 29/1800z 20.9n 86.1w 30 kt 35 mph
72h 30/1800z 20.0n 86.0w 25 kt 30 mph...post-trop/remnt low
96h 31/1800z 18.5n 86.5w 20 kt 25 mph...post-trop/remnt low
120h 01/1800z 17.0n 87.0w 20 kt 25 mph...post-trop/remnt low

$$
forecaster beven

Celebrity says that next week's cruises are still scheduled to go to Cozumel.

Great to hear Rina is fading and I hope she does not change her mind and get bad again.

I too really like Key West and would trade any Mexican port to go there.