Thread: Invest 95 - NW Caribbean (E of the Yucatan)

ZCZC MIA
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATANPENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDSNEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THECENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OFMEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUALDEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATANPENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSERANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESSFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$F
ORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
NNNN

Welcome Home Sheila! Hope you and Sue had a great cruise!

Do you think this Invest95 will be a problem for folks leaving today on a Western Caribbean?

It might . . .

Thank you for the welcome home, Lulu.

The first night was a little rough, as we encountered a storm that unexpectedly intensified, with winds equivalent to a Cat 3, and everyone was confined to their cabins. There was some damage, including water in cabins on decks 7 - 9, and some injuries described as "minor." Lots of breakage all over the ship. But the Captian did a great job, and the crew was marvelous.
We had a wonderful time.

000
abnt20 knhc 171139
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt mon oct 17 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located over the south-central gulf of mexico about 100
miles north of the yucatan peninsula have changed little in
organization during the last several hours. This system continues
to produce strong gusty winds over the southeastern gulf of mexico.
Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next day or so before becoming unfavorable
after that. this system has a high chance...60 percent...of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
generally northward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development...
Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over the
yucatan peninsula...western cuba...the florida keys...and south
florida during the next couple of days. An air force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon.

Tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt mon oct 17 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms with winds to near tropical
storm force continue over the southeastern gulf of mexico.
Satellite and surface data indicate that this activity remains well
removed from the low pressure area centered near the north coast of
the yucatan peninsula. However...there still is some potential for
development of this system on tuesday before atmospheric conditions
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. This system
has a medium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours as it moves generally northward.
Regardless of development...locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected over western cuba...the florida keys...and the florida
peninsula during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster roberts/brown

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tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt tue oct 18 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A broad area of low pressure centered just north of the yucatan
peninsula is producing a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms
and winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern gulf of
mexico. However...recent satellite and surface data indicate that
the low center is located several hundred miles west of the
heaviest showers and strongest winds...and the circulation is
becoming elongated north-northeastward over the central gulf of
mexico. The potential for this system to develop appears to be
decreasing...and it has a low chance...20 percent...of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it begins to move
north-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph later today. Regardless of
development...this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall...gusty winds...and possible severe weather over the
florida keys...the florida peninsula...southern georgia...and
coastal sections of the carolinas over the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster berg
nnnn

Could be worse ... but will still produce some nasty weather.

PE (John ... Planersedge) is currently on a Western with stops in Ocho Rios, Grand Cayman, & Cozumel.

We are doing good down here in the Cape, rain but not heavy and light wind.. The worst weather will be in North Florida above I-4. You could get some LuLu.

Yep, it's already moving in....

It's not too bad here today either, but we did have some heavy rain during the night. Just messy now. Some wind but not bad and sporadic rain. Looks like we have more rain coming later today.