Thread: Tropical Storm Philippe - Tropical Atlantic

000
wtnt32 knhc 240858
tcpat2

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tropical depression seventeen advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172011
500 am ast sat sep 24 2011

...another depression forms in the tropical atlantic ocean...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.7n 25.2w
about 290 mi...465 km s of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression
seventeen was located near latitude 10.7 north...longitude 25.2
west. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24
km/h. A motion generally toward the west-northwest with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is forecast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster blake

000
wtnt32 knhc 252049
tcpat2

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tropical storm philippe advisory number 7...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172011
500 pm ast sun sep 25 2011

corrected advisory number

...philippe strengthens over the far eastern atlantic...


Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.2n 31.7w
about 500 mi...805 km wsw of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...nw or 305 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm philippe was
located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 31.7 west. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. A gradual turn
toward the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And philippe is expected to approach hurricane strength by late
monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster zelinsky/stewart

000
wtnt32 knhc 280832
tcpat2

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tropical storm philippe advisory number 17
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172011
500 am ast wed sep 28 2011

...philippe moving west-northwestward over the eastern atlantic...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.5n 38.0w
about 930 mi...1495 km w of the cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm philippe was
located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 38.0 west. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. A turn
toward the northwest with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or
two...and philippe could become a tropical depression tonight or
thursday.

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster cangialosi

000
wtnt32 knhc 290842
tcpat2

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tropical storm philippe advisory number 21
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172011
500 am ast thu sep 29 2011

...philippe moving toward the west-northwest with no change in
strength...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.8n 41.7w
about 1175 mi...1895 km w of the cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm philippe was
located near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 41.7 west. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h...and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so...followed by weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster pasch

Tropical storm philippe discussion number 25...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al172011
500 am ast fri sep 30 2011

corrected initial motion

the recent evolution of philippe is a bit of a mystery. A couple of
recent microwave overpasses indicate that philippe has a well-
defined eye feature in the low levels...suggesting that there has
been a net increase in the structural organization of the cyclone
during the last 24 hours. However...geostationary satellite images
indicate that the convective pattern of the storm is somewhat
chaotic...with the main cluster of deep convection well to the
northeast of the center until recently. Given that there has been
no appreciable change in the overall organization since the last
advisory...the initial wind speed estimate is held at 40 kt.

Although there has been a relative relaxation of the shear during
the last 12-24 hours...philippe has not strengthened yet. However...
The better organized low-level structure of the storm would seem to
be conducive for some increase in strength while the shear remains
low. Within 24-36 hours...weakening seems likely as philippe should
enter a region dominated by the very strong upper-level
northwesterly winds associated with the outflow of ophelia.
Assuming that philippe can withstand wind shear of that
magnitude...there could be an opportunity for some intensification
toward the end of the forecast period. The new nhc intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one in the short term but a
bit lower after 36 hours...just below the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

Philippe appears to be moving northwestward or 315 degrees at 11
kt...but the lack of confidence in earlier center fixes makes this
estimate somewhat uncertain. Global models show philippe being
steered west-northwestward to northwestward during the next day or
so on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high over the
eastern tropical atlantic. After that...an amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern united states should cause
heights to rise over the central atlantic which...in turn...should
result in philippe's turning westward. The new nhc track is
basically an update of the previous forecast and continues to
favor the ecmwf solution on the southern side of the guidance
envelope which has a weaker version of philippe. The official
forecast is well to the left of multi-model consensus at later
times since most of the models assume a stronger cyclone.


Forecast positions and max winds

init 30/0900z 21.9n 44.9w 40 kt 45 mph
12h 30/1800z 22.9n 46.2w 45 kt 50 mph
24h 01/0600z 23.9n 47.9w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 01/1800z 24.5n 49.8w 40 kt 45 mph
48h 02/0600z 24.9n 51.6w 35 kt 40 mph
72h 03/0600z 25.1n 55.4w 30 kt 35 mph
96h 04/0600z 25.0n 58.8w 30 kt 35 mph
120h 05/0600z 24.5n 62.0w 35 kt 40 mph

$$
forecaster kimberlain