Thread: Tropical Storm Hillary - W of the Baja

000
wtpz34 knhc 210849
tcpep4

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tropical depression nine-e advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep092011
200 am pdt wed sep 21 2011

...tropical depression forms south of mexico...


Summary of 200 am pdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.4n 96.5w
about 170 mi...275 km sse of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

interests along the southern coast of mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression nine-e
was located near latitude 13.4 north...longitude 96.5 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph...7
km/h...and this general motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible along the
southern coast of mexico from the gulf of tehuantepec westward to
near acapulco during the next day or two.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster brown

Tropical Storm Hillary

000
wtpz34 knhc 211437
tcpep4

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tropical storm hilary advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep092011
800 am pdt wed sep 21 2011

...depression strengthens and is now tropical storm hilary south of
mexico...


Summary of 800 am pdt...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.6n 96.8w
about 155 mi...245 km s of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm hilary was
located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 96.8 west. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/h...and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and hilary could become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches across portions of the mexican states of chiapas...
Oaxaca...and guerrero with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster cangialosi

000
wtpz34 knhc 212332
tcpep4

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tropical storm hilary intermediate advisory number 3a
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep092011
500 pm pdt wed sep 21 2011

...hilary gradually intensifying...could become a hurricane on
thursday...


Summary of 500 pm pdt...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.2n 96.9w
about 115 mi...185 km s of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...80 km/h
present movement...nw or 305 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* lagunas de chacahua mexico westward to lazaro cardenas

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm pdt...0000 utc...the center of tropical storm hilary was
located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 96.9 west. Hilary is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9 km/h. A turn to the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of
hilary is expected to parallel the coast of southern mexico. Some
rain bands with gusty winds are already affecting a portion of the
southern coast of mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...80 km/h...
With higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and hilary could
become a hurricane by thursday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches across portions of the mexican states of chiapas...
Oaxaca...and guerrero with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster avila

000
wtpz34 knhc 221133
tcpep4

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tropical storm hilary intermediate advisory number 5a
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep092011
500 am pdt thu sep 22 2011

...hilary near hurricane strength...


Summary of 500 am pdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.0n 98.6w
about 90 mi...145 km s of punto maldonado mexico
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
minimum central pressure...991 mb...29.26 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* lagunas de chacahua mexico westward to punta san telmo

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* west of punta san telmo to manzanillo

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am pdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm hilary was
located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 98.6 west. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48
hours. On the forecast track the core of hilary will continue to
move parallel to the southwest coast of mexico...but any deviation
to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/h...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48
hours. Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane today and could
become a major hurricane by saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm force winds are expected to first reach the
warning area later this morning...and then spread westward along the
coast during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Rainfall...hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches across southern guerrero and southwestern oaxaca in southern
mexico with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible.

Surf...swells generated by hilary are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch

Hurricane Hilary

000
wtpz34 knhc 221433
tcpep4

bulletin
hurricane hilary advisory number 6
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep092011
800 am pdt thu sep 22 2011

...hilary is now a hurricane...additional strengthening expected...


Summary of 800 am pdt...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.1n 98.9w
about 140 mi...225 km sse of acapulco mexico
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...989 mb...29.21 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* lagunas de chacahua mexico westward to punta san telmo

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* west of punta san telmo to manzanillo

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of hurricane hilary was
located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 98.9 west. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/h...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48
hours. On the forecast track the core of hilary will continue to
move parallel to the southwest coast of mexico...but any deviation
to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/h...with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours...and hilary could become a major hurricane by
friday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75
miles...120 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.21 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast
within the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward along the coast during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Rainfall...hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches across southern guerrero and southwestern oaxaca in southern
mexico with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible.

Surf...swells generated by hilary are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...1100 am pdt.
Next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch

Category FOUR!