Thread: Tropical Storm Ophelia Central Atlantic (98L)

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011091800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 369W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 99N, 364W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 359W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 102N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 352W,

8 am two:

A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
atlantic about midway between the lesser antilles and the west
coast of africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
few days as it moves slowly westward. This system has a low
chance...20 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.

It's that time of year! We need to keep an eye on this one ....

Yes this one is a low runner, 97 is higher where the shear will be.

A well-defined low pressure area is located over the central
tropical atlantic about 1450 miles east of the windward islands.
Thunderstorm activity has become better organized and more
concentrated near the center of the low...and environmental
conditions appear favorable for the development of a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. This system has a high
chance...60 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

Remains at 60%

They made the merge between Ex 97L and 98L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE EAST ABOUT
1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

70%

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt tue sep 20 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 1500 miles east of the windward islands
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for a tropical depression to form
later today or on wednesday. This system has a high chance...70
percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster pasch

Tropical Storm Ophelia