Thread: TD Nate - inland

In the Bay of Campeche

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This afternoons AFD from Slidell:

000
FXUS64 KLIX 062001
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...
UNUSUALLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE PULLED NORTH
TOWARDS OHIO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT A DRY ZONAL FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
SEEMS THE BE THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO WANT TOO DEVELOP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THAT IS WHEN THERE IS A MAJOR DEPARTURE
BECOMES EVIDENT. IN ONE CORNER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FORECASTING A
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AT THE
OPPOSITE END OF THE RING THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM BOTTLED UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT
WEST INTO MEXICO. THREE THINGS ARE IMPORTANT HERE. ONE...IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE SYSTEM DEVELOP? TWO...IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL
THE SYSTEM BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S? THREE...IF DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK...THEN
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT WEST AND REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF? BOTTOM
LINE IS THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.

70%

zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt wed sep 7 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
katia...located about 325 miles southwest of bermuda...and on
recently named tropical storm maria...located about 1300 miles
east of the lesser antilles.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the bay of campeche
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over the
southwestern gulf of mexico. This system continues to show signs
of organization and environmental conditions appear favorable for
the low to become a tropical depression later today or thursday.
This system has a high chance...70 percent...of becoming a tropical
cyclone as it moves little during the next 48 hours. An air force
reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently en route to
investigate this disturbance.

Tropical Storm Nate

000
wtnt35 knhc 072102
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm nate advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al152011
400 pm cdt wed sep 07 2011

...tropical storm nate forms in the bay of campeche...tropical storm
warnings issued for mexico...


Summary of 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.2n 92.4w
about 125 mi...200 km w of campeche mexico
about 190 mi...305 km ne of coatzacoalcos mexico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...ese or 110 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/h
minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the
coast of mexico from chilitepec to celestun.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* mexico from chilitepec to celestun

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm nate was
located near latitude 20.2 north...longitude 92.4 west. Nate is
moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph...4 km/h...and little
motion is expected tonight and thursday. A slow northward motion
is forecast for friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and nate could become a hurricane by friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165
km...mostly to the east and south of the center. Data from pemex
oil rigs in the bay of campeche measured sustained winds of 43
mph...70 km/h...gusting to 50 mph...80 km/h.

An air force reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft measured a
minimum central pressure of 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight...and could continue into
thursday.

Rainfall... Nate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the
mexican states of campeche...tabasco...and southern veracruz.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast in the warning area.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster blake/zelinsky

000
wtnt35 knhc 080843
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical storm nate advisory number 3
nws national hurricane center miami fl al152011
400 am cdt thu sep 08 2011

...nate nearly stationary with no change in strength...


Summary of 400 am cdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.4n 92.4w
about 130 mi...205 km wnw of campeche mexico
about 200 mi...320 km ne of coatzacoalcos mexico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...e or 90 degrees at 1 mph...2 km/h
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* mexico from chilitepec to celestun

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 am cdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm nate was
located near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 92.4 west. Nate is
drifting toward the east near 1 mph...2 km/h. An erratic eastward
or northeastward motion is expected today...followed by a slow
northward to north-northwestward motion on friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast
within the warning area today.

Rainfall... Nate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the
mexican states of campeche...tabasco...and southern veracruz.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the warning area.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 am cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 am cdt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/pasch

Hope Nate won't be a big problem ....