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tropical storm nate advisory number 13
nws national hurricane center miami fl al152011
400 pm cdt sat sep 10 2011
...hurricane warning issued from tuxpan to veracruz mexico...
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion...
Summary of 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.1n 94.6w
about 120 mi...195 km ene of veracruz mexico
about 190 mi...310 km ese of tuxpan mexico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h
minimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
The government of mexico has issued a hurricane warning from tuxpan
to veracruz.
The government of mexico has issued a hurricane watch from south of
veracruz to punta el lagarto.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* mexico from tuxpan to veracruz
a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* mexico from tampico to north of tuxpan
* mexico from south of veracruz to punta el lagarto
a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* mexico from tampico to north of tuxpan
* mexico from south of veracruz to punta el lagarto
a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...in this case within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm nate was
located by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.1 north...longitude 94.6 west. Nate is moving toward
the west near 6 mph...9 km/h...and this motion is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track the center
of nate will reach the coast of mexico in the hurricane warning
area on sunday.
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours...and
nate is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it makes
landfall on sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 999
mb...29.50 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area by late tonight or early sunday...with
hurricane conditions expected by midday sunday.
Rainfall...nate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4
to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over the
mexican states of veracruz and tabasco.
Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster brennan
tropical storm nate discussion number 13
nws national hurricane center miami fl al152011
400 pm cdt sat sep 10 2011
the structure of nate has improved this afternoon...with an increase
in deep convection...particularly in a large curved band to the
east of the center. The hurricane hunter aircraft measured a peak
850-mb flight level wind of 68 kt in the northeast quadrant and an
sfmr wind of 52 kt as the plane exited the center to the northeast.
Based on these data the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.
Steady intensification seems likely through landfall as nate moves
over very warm waters in a low shear environment. The official
forecast reflects this thinking and shows the system reaching
hurricane strength before landfall...in good agreement with the
ships model.
After pausing earlier this afternoon...nate again appears to be
moving toward the west or 270 degrees at about 5 knots. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged...as the cyclone should
continue moving westward or just south of due west through landfall
to the south of a mid-level ridge. The new nhc forecast was
adjusted northward a little due to the initial position being a bit
north of earlier estimates...but was otherwise unchanged and lies
between the gfs and ecmwf models.
A hurricane warning is now required for a portion of the coast of
mexico from tuxpan to veracruz.
Forecast positions and max winds
init 10/2100z 20.1n 94.6w 55 kt 65 mph
12h 11/0600z 20.0n 95.3w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 11/1800z 19.9n 96.4w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 12/0600z 19.8n 97.5w 40 kt 45 mph...inland
48h 12/1800z 19.7n 98.7w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
72h 13/1800z...dissipated
$$
forecaster brennan
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