Thread: Hurricane KATIA Eastern atlantic

Bulletin
tropical storm katia advisory number 5
nws national hurricane center miami fl al122011
500 am ast tue aug 30 2011

...new tropical storm moving quickly west-northwestward across the
tropical atlantic...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...11.8n 31.7w
about 535 mi...855 km wsw of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 17 mph...28 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm katia was
located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 31.7 west. Katia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/h. This general
motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours with a
gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...65 km/h...
With higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours...and katia is expected to be near hurricane
intensity by late wednesday or early thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster brennan

A sharp right turn would be nice!

Sure would

Wtnt42 knhc 301432
tcdat2

tropical storm katia discussion number 6
nws national hurricane center miami fl al122011
1100 am ast tue aug 30 2011

east-northeasterly shear over katia has decreased and the storm
continues to gradually become better organized. The banding
features are better defined and the low-level center has become
embedded within a small central convective overcast. Upper-level
outflow is also becoming more prominent. Dvorak intensity
estimates range from 35 to 45 kt so the current wind speed is set
at 40 kt. With weakening shear and sea surface temperatures just
below 28 deg c...katia should continue to strengthen and will
likely become a hurricane in 36 hours or so. The official
intensity forecast is close to the hfip model consensus...which
shows katia nearing major hurricane status by the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion is a slightly faster 285/16. Not much change has
been made to the track forecast. Katia is expected to continue
moving west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical
ridge for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast
period...the tropical cyclone is expected to be approaching a
weakness in the ridge created by a trough over the western
atlantic. This should cause katia to begin to turn toward the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The official forecast
lies a little north of the dynamical model consensus through 48
hours and is very close to the consensus for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Forecast positions and max winds

init 30/1500z 12.3n 33.4w 40 kt 45 mph
12h 31/0000z 13.0n 35.7w 50 kt 60 mph
24h 31/1200z 13.8n 39.0w 55 kt 65 mph
36h 01/0000z 14.6n 42.4w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 01/1200z 15.4n 45.7w 75 kt 85 mph
72h 02/1200z 17.0n 51.5w 85 kt 100 mph
96h 03/1200z 19.0n 55.5w 95 kt 110 mph
120h 04/1200z 21.5n 59.5w 100 kt 115 mph

$$
forecaster pasch

000
wtnt32 knhc 311433
tcpat2

bulletin
tropical storm katia advisory number 10
nws national hurricane center miami fl al122011
1100 am ast wed aug 31 2011

...katia likely to become a hurricane later today...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...14.2n 40.8w
about 1100 mi...1765 km w of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 21 mph...33 km/h
minimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm katia was
located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 40.8 west. Katia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph...33 km/h...and this
motion with a gradual slowing of forward speed is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two... And
katia will probably become a hurricane today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster pasch

Wtnt32 knhc 010835
tcpat2

bulletin
hurricane katia advisory number 13
nws national hurricane center miami fl al122011
500 am ast thu sep 01 2011

...katia changes little in strength during the past several hours...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.2n 45.9w
about 1065 mi...1710 km e of the leeward islands
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...987 mb...29.15 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of hurricane katia was located
near latitude 15.2 north...longitude 45.9 west. Katia is moving
toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/h. A general motion toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/h...with higher
gusts. Katia is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And katia could become a major hurricane by the weekend.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125
miles...205 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster beven

The current models are still showing Katia missing the eastern US...New England is still iffy. I hope she doesn't decide to deviate and pay us a visit.