Thread: Tropical Depression Ten (90L) Eastern Atlantic

Just off africa this morning

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

It is on the Navy site

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir

20110823.0845.90LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-122N-190W.

Tropical cyclone guidance message
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1206 utc tue aug 23 2011

disclaimer...numerical models are subject to large errors.
Please refer to nhc official forecasts for tropical cyclone
and subtropical cyclone information.

Atlantic objective aids for

disturbance invest (al902011) 20110823 0600 utc

...00 hrs... ...12 hrs... ...24 hrs. .. ...36 hrs...
110823 0600 110823 1800 110824 0600 110824 1800

lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
bams 12.2n 19.0w 12.7n 20.7w 13.8n 22.6w 15.0n 24.9w
bamd 12.2n 19.0w 12.7n 21.5w 13.1n 23.9w 13.4n 26.2w
bamm 12.2n 19.0w 12.9n 21.3w 13.5n 23.8w 14.1n 26.4w
lbar 12.2n 19.0w 12.4n 21.7w 12.9n 24.5w 13.6n 27.4w
ship 25kts 30kts 37kts 46kts
dshp 25kts 30kts 37kts 46kts

...48 hrs... ...72 hrs... ...96 hrs. .. ..120 hrs...
110825 0600 110826 0600 110827 0600 110828 0600

lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
bams 16.0n 27.0w 16.8n 29.3w 16.8n 29.0w 16.1n 29.3w
bamd 13.5n 28.4w 14.1n 32.2w 15.1n 33.6w 15.5n 33.3w
bamm 14.6n 28.9w 15.3n 32.0w 15.8n 32.7w 16.0n 32.4w
lbar 14.5n 30.2w 16.4n 34.7w 18.3n 37.4w 17.9n 38.7w
ship 56kts 72kts 79kts 79kts
dshp 56kts 72kts 79kts 79kts

...initial conditions...
Latcur = 12.2n loncur = 19.0w dircur = 270deg spdcur = 11kt
latm12 = 12.3n lonm12 = 16.8w dirm12 = 265deg spdm12 = 11kt
latm24 = 12.6n lonm24 = 14.9w
wndcur = 25kt rmaxwd = 90nm wndm12 = 25kt
cenprs = 1008mb outprs = 1010mb outrad = 150nm sdepth = s
rd34ne = 0nm rd34se = 0nm rd34sw = 0nm rd34nw = 0nm

It's that time of year!

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 300 miles
southwest of the southern cape verde islands. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for the development of a tropical
depression...and this system has a high chance...70 percent...of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Deptession Ten

000
wtnt35 knhc 250857
tcpat5

bulletin
tropical depression ten advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al102011
500 am edt thu aug 25 2011

...new tropical depression forms in the far eastern atlantic...


Summary of 500 am edt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...12.4n 30.4w
about 435 mi...700 km wsw of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am edt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression ten was
located near latitude 12.4 north...longitude 30.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20
km/h. A turn toward the northwest with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm
later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am edt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain

Good News
Say Good Bye to
Tropical Depression Ten