Thread: 98L just off Africa

Behind 97L

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

30%

a vigorous tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of africa
accompanied by a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This
wave is already showing signs of organization and upper-level winds
are forecast to be conducive for further development during the
next couple of days. This system has a medium chance...30
percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of
development...locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are
possible in the cape verde islands friday into saturday.

Up to 40%

2 AM TWO

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

50% at 8 am!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART