Thread: TS Irene -US East Coast

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,is

This one could be a go if it gets through eveything from where it is to where it is going. It is higher than the others and models are agreeing. Looking at Florida & EC Florida.......Maybe

New NHC grid forecast for the morning of AUG 24th, it's at the south tip of Cuba:

Yikes

Code Red

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF ROATAN HONDURAS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DRIER AIR BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Florida is watching this one. One model takes it east coast, one west coast and one right up the spine of Florida.

Gotta keep an eye on it.

70% at 2 AM
Recon scheduled

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE
INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON