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tropical storm irene advisory number 3
nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011
500 am ast sun aug 21 2011
...irene lashing the northern leeward islands with squalls and
heavy rains...
Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.4n 61.3w
about 10 mi...15 km ne of guadeloupe
about 60 mi...95 km se of antigua
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 21 mph...33 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...
The government of the dominican republic has issued a hurricane
warning for the southern coast of the dominican republic from cabo
engano westward to the haiti border. A tropical storm warning has
been issued for the northern coast of the dominican republic from
the haiti border eastward to north of cabo engano.
A hurricane watch has been issued for puerto rico...vieques...and
culebra.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for all of haiti.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* southern coast of the dominican republic from cabo engano westward
to the haiti border
a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* puerto rico...vieques...and culebra
a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* puerto rico...u.s. Virgin islands...vieques...and culebra
* saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maarten
* dominica
* antigua...barbuda...st. Kitts...nevis...anguilla...montserrat
* british virgin islands
* northern coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border
eastward to north of cabo engano
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* haiti
tropical storm conditions could occur elsewhere in the northern
leeward islands and in the virgin islands later today.
Hurricane conditions could occur on puerto rico...vieques...and
culebra tonight and monday morning...and are expected in the
dominican republic monday afternoon and monday night.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 36 to 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united states...
Including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor
products issued by your local national weather service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...reports from radar...satellite...and
surface observations indicate the center of tropical storm irene was
located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 61.3 west. Irene is
moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/h...and a motion toward
the west or west-northwest at a slower rate of speed is expected
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track...irene will pass
through the leeward islands this morning...and move into the
northeastern caribbean sea this afternoon. Irene could approach
puerto rico and the dominican republic on monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and irene could become a hurricane by monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...
240 km...mainly to the north and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the leeward islands
later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon in the virgin islands and puerto rico. Hurricane
conditions are possible over puerto rico and st. Croix tonight...and
are expected over the dominican republic by late monday with
tropical storm conditions possible by monday afternoon.
Rainfall...irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches in the leeward islands...puerto rico and the
virgin islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible across
the dominican republic and haiti...with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.
Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of the
dominican republic. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected along the immediate coast in the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am ast.
Next complete advisory...1100 am ast.
$$
forecaster stewart
tropical storm irene discussion number 3
nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011
500 am ast sun aug 21 2011
satellite images and radar data from guadeloupe indicate that irene
has changed little in the past 6 hours. The center redeveloped
about 60 nmi farther north into the deep convection. However...a
narrow wedge of dry air has been entrained into the northern and
western quadrants...which has eroded some of the inner core
convection near the low-level center. As a result...the initial
intensity remains at 45 kt...which is supported by a satellite
intensity estimate of t3.0/45 kt from tafb. The next hurricane
hunter aircraft scheduled to reconnoiter irene will be 1200 utc.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/18 due to the
uncertainty in the initial position. 00z upper-air data from the
northern caribbean islands and bermuda indicate a fairly stout
deep-layer subtropical ridge exists to the north and northwest of
irene. The resultant moderate easterly steering flow should keep
the cyclone moving in a general westward to west-northwestward
direction for the next 72 hours or so. After that...a weakness in
the ridge is expected to develop across the eastern gulf of
mexico...florida...and the extreme western atlantic...which should
allow irene to turn northwestward across haiti and eastern cuba and
emerge over the florida straits in about 96 hours. All of the
models are in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario
except for the ukmet and gfdl models. Those latter two models keep
irene on a westerly track south of cuba and through the yucatan
channel...despite their developing a similar break in the ridge
axis over florida by days 4 and 5...and are considered outliers at
this time. The official forecast track is north of the previous
advisory track mainly due to the more northward initial position...
And lies close to the consensus models tvcn and tvca.
The upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable for
strengthening throughout the forecast period as a result of low
shear and a mid-oceanic trough to the east acting as a mass sink
for the outflow in the eastern semicircle. However...the intensity
forecast is heavily dependent on how much interaction irene has
with the mountainous terrain of hispaniola and what the inner core
of the cyclone becomes after it emerges off the northeast coast of
cuba in about 4 days. Once over the florida straits...however...
Irene will have at least 24 hours over some of the warmest water in
the atlantic to tap into. The official forecast remains on the
conservative side due to land effects and is close to a blend of
ships and lgem statistical intensity models.
Forecast positions and max winds
init 21/0900z 16.4n 61.3w 45 kt 50 mph
12h 21/1800z 17.0n 63.7w 50 kt 60 mph
24h 22/0600z 17.5n 66.7w 60 kt 70 mph
36h 22/1800z 18.0n 69.2w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 23/0600z 18.6n 71.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
72h 24/0600z 20.3n 75.3w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
96h 25/0600z 22.8n 78.2w 60 kt 70 mph...over water
120h 26/0600z 26.1n 80.7w 75 kt 85 mph...inland
$$
forecaster stewart
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Doesn't seem Irene will be saying "Good Night" any time soon .....
... 
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