Thread: TS Irene -US East Coast

Tropical Storm Irene

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tropical storm irene special advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011
700 pm ast sat aug 20 2011

...tropical storm forms east of the leeward islands...tropical storm
warnings issued...


Summary of 700 pm ast...2300 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.9n 58.5w
about 190 mi...305 km e of dominica
about 215 mi...345 km ese of guadeloupe
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 22 mph...35 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

A tropical storm warning has been issued for puerto rico and the
u.s. Virgin islands...vieques and culebra.

The government of curacao has issued a tropical storm warning for
saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin.

The meteorological service of barbados has issued a tropical storm
warning for dominica.

The government of antigua has issued a tropical storm warning for
barbuda...st. Kitts...nevis...antigua...montserrat...
Anguilla...and the british virgin islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* puerto rico...u.s. Virgin islands...vieques and culebra
* saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin
* dominica
* barbuda...st. Kitts...nevis...antigua...anguilla...montserrat
* british virgin islands

tropical storm conditions could occur elsewhere in the northern
leeward islands tonight and early sunday.

Hurricane conditions could occur in the dominican republic late on
monday.

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 pm ast...2300 utc...the center of tropical storm irene was
located near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 58.5 west. Irene is
moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/h...and a motion toward
west-northwest at a slower rate of speed is expected during the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track...irene will pass through the
leeward islands early sunday...and move into the northeastern
caribbean sea on sunday. Irene could approach the dominican
republic late monday.

data from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with
higher gusts. some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours and irene could become a hurricane on monday.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km
...mainly to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft was 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the leeward islands
tonight into early sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin sunday afternoon in the virgin islands and puerto rico.
Hurricane conditions are possible over the dominican republic
by late monday with tropical storm conditions possible by monday
afternoon.

Rainfall...irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches in the leeward islands...puerto rico and the
virgin islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides in areas of steep terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the
warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster blake/brennan

From an extensive blog entry by Dr. Jeff Masters -

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life this evening, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours.

. . .


Irene is more of a threat than Tropical Storm Emily of early August was, since Irene has closed off a center farther east than Emily did and has more time to organize before encountering Hispaniola. I don't think passage over Hispaniola will destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm, and is likely to be a hurricane by then. However, if Irene follows the NHC forecast, it will have an extended encounter with Hispaniola and Cuba on Tuesday through Wednesday . . . . Irene could easily miss Florida and move up the East Coast and hit North or South Carolina, or pass through the Florida Keys and into Gulf of Mexico, ending up who knows where . . .

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.

Also:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.

Those guys are gonna be busy

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for Sunday morning through Monday afternoon

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tropical storm irene advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011
1100 pm ast sat aug 20 2011

...irene approaching the leeward islands...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...15.3n 59.9w
about 95 mi...150 km e of dominica
about 120 mi...195 km se of guadeloupe
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 22 mph...35 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The government of the dominican republic has issued a tropical storm
watch for the south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti
border to cabo engano.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* puerto rico...u.s. Virgin islands...vieques and culebra
* saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin
* dominica
* barbuda...st. Kitts...nevis...antigua...anguilla...montserrat
* british virgin islands

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border to
cabo engano

tropical storm conditions could occur elsewhere in the northern
leeward islands tonight and early sunday.

Hurricane conditions could occur in the dominican republic late on
monday.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states
...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor
products issued by your local national weather service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm irene was
located near latitude 15.3 north...longitude 59.9 west. Irene is
moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/h...and a motion toward
west-northwest at a slower rate of speed is expected during the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track...irene will pass through the
leeward islands early sunday...and move into the northeastern
caribbean sea later on sunday. Irene could approach the dominican
republic late monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and
irene could become a hurricane on monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195
km...mainly to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the leeward islands
overnight into sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin sunday afternoon in the virgin islands and puerto rico.
Hurricane conditions are possible over the dominican republic
by late monday with tropical storm conditions possible by monday
afternoon.

Rainfall...irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches in the leeward islands...puerto rico and the
virgin islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides in areas of steep terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the
warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.
Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
forecaster blake/brennan