Thread: TD Emily - off SE Florida coast

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt fri jul 29 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm don located about 195 miles east of brownsville texas.

A large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system is located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the lesser
antilles. This disturbance continues to show signs of
organization...and environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development over the next few days. This system has a
medium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster beven

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt fri jul 29 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropicalstorm don located about 120 miles east-northeast of brownsvilletexas.

1. A large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressuresystem is located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the lesserantilles. This disturbance continues to show signs oforganization...and environmental conditions are conducive forgradual development over the next few days. This system has amedium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone duringthe next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at15 to 20 mph.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours.

$$
forecaster beven

70%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLYDOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OFCORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED INASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOWIN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ATROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THISSYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THISSYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OFCENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO15 MPH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TOINTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

up to 80%

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt sat jul 30 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 900 miles east of the lesser antilles continue
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for a tropical depression to form over the next couple of
days. This system has a high chance...80 percent...of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

2. A tropical wave over the northwestern caribbean sea continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system
will likely bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central
america and mexico through the weekend as it moves westward near 15
mph. However...no significant development is expected due to its
interaction with land. This system has a low chance...near
0 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster beven
nnnn

Recon scheduled for tomorrow . . .

90%

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt sat jul 30 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
large low pressure system centered about 750 miles east of the
lesser antilles has continued to become better organized...and a
tropical depression could form later tonight or sunday. This system
is moving toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph and has a high
chance...90 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. An air force plane is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance sunday afternoon. interests in the lesser antilles
should closely monitor the progress of this system.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster avila
nnnn