Thread: Hurricane Dora -SSW of Acapulco

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181133
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Four-E

000
wtpz34 knhc 181431
tcpep4

bulletin
tropical depression four-e advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
800 am pdt mon jul 18 2011

...fourth tropical depression of the season forms south
of guatemala...


Summary of 800 am pdt...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.6n 91.5w
about 265 mi...425 km sw of san salvador el salvador
about 460 mi...740 km sse of salina cruz mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression four-e
was located near latitude 10.6 north...longitude 91.5 west. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/h...and
this general motion is expected to continue through wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today...and
could reach hurricane strength by wednesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster stewart


000
wtpz34 knhc 181431
tcpep4

bulletin
tropical depression four-e advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
800 am pdt mon jul 18 2011

...fourth tropical depression of the season forms south
of guatemala...


Summary of 800 am pdt...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.6n 91.5w
about 265 mi...425 km sw of san salvador el salvador
about 460 mi...740 km sse of salina cruz mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression four-e
was located near latitude 10.6 north...longitude 91.5 west. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/h...and
this general motion is expected to continue through wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today...and
could reach hurricane strength by wednesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster stewart

Tropical Storm Dora

000
wtpz64 knhc 181800
tcuep4

tropical storm dora tropical cyclone update
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
1100 am pdt mon jul 18 2011

...depression reaches tropical storm strength...

Satellite images indicate that tropical depression four-e
has strengthened and is now tropical storm dora.

Summary of 1100 am pdt...1800 utc...information
--------------------------------------------------
location...10.6n 92.3w
about 400 mi...645 km sse of salina cruz mexico
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtpz34 knhc 182033
tcpep4

bulletin
tropical storm dora advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
200 pm pdt mon jul 18 2011

...dora strengthening well south of guatemala and mexico...


Summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...10.7n 92.9w
about 410 mi...660 km sse of salina cruz mexico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm dora was
located near latitude 10.7 north...longitude 92.9 west. Dora is
moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue through wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and dora could become a hurricane by tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtpz34 knhc 190837
tcpep4

bulletin
tropical storm dora advisory number 4
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
200 am pdt tue jul 19 2011

...dora a little stronger...additional intensification expected...


Summary of 200 am pdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...11.4n 95.9w
about 300 mi...485 km s of puerto angel mexico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/h
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm dora was
located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 95.9 west. Dora is
moving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/h. A west to
west-northwest motion is forecast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100
km/h...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
during the next 48 hours...and dora is forecast to become a
hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
surf...swells generated by dora are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern mainland mexico later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster cangialosi

tropical storm dora discussion number 6
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep042011
200 pm pdt tue jul 19 2011

dora is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images have
occasionally showed an eye trying to form during the past several
hours...although microwave data indicates any inner core remain
disorganized. Since there are no estimates of this system as a
hurricane...the current intensity will remain 60 kt.

The storm is expected to strengthen during the next couple of days
as there is plenty of high ssts and light shear conditions in its
path. Rapid intensification remains a distinct possibility...
Especially if the inner core can become better defined. The nhc
wind speed forecast remains at the upper edge of the guidance
suite...and is closest to the gfdl model prediction. In about
three days...dora should reach cooler water...and a rapid weakening
is likely.

Visible images showed that the center of dora was a bit farther
north than previously estimated...resulting in an initial motion of
295/15...a little to the right and faster than before. The cyclone
should basically move parallel to the coast of southwestern mexico
during the next couple of days. The spread of the track models is
very small during that time as the steering currents around a ridge
over north america remain strong. After that time...the ridge
should weaken and slide eastward due to a trough moving into the
western united states. A couple of the models...ukmet and
hwrf...show dora as a threat to baja california in the long range.
However...most of the guidance still keep the cyclone offshore. The
official forecast has shifted a little bit to the right...mostly
due to the center repositioning...but is close to the previous
forecast in the long range.

It should be noted the wind speed probabilities suggest some
chance of tropical storm force winds along the coast of southwestern
mexico as dora passes. However...given the excellent model
agreement in keeping the center well offshore...a tropical storm
watch is not being issued at this time.


Forecast positions and max winds

init 19/2100z 12.8n 98.6w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 20/0600z 13.7n 100.6w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 20/1800z 14.9n 103.1w 85 kt 100 mph
36h 21/0600z 16.1n 105.1w 100 kt 115 mph
48h 21/1800z 17.1n 106.7w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 22/1800z 19.1n 109.1w 90 kt 105 mph
96h 23/1800z 21.0n 111.5w 65 kt 75 mph
120h 24/1800z 22.5n 115.0w 35 kt 40 mph

$$
forecaster blake