Thread: Tropical Depression Bret - NNW of Bermuda

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 300N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Kind of meandering out there going sse, but in the last couple of hours it has been ssw. Could be a TS, maybe recon.

Looks like Hurricane Hunters going in this afternoon -

Tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sun jul 17 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 100 miles east of cape canaveral florida
continue to show signs of organization. Upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for development at this time...but could
become a little more favorable during the next day or so. This
system has a medium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly toward the
south. An air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the area later today...if necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

Tracking the Tropics: Disturbance churns near Florida


Posted: Jul 17, 2011 11:14 AM EDTUpdated: Jul 17, 2011 11:27 AM EDT





FORT MYERS - We're tracking a disorganized area of low pressure just off the east coast of Florida, about 100 miles due east of Melbourne.
This feature has shown some signs of development over the last 12-24 hours, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next two days.
The variable limiting quick development currently is a stream of strong upper level winds, which tends to keep these systems disorganized.
By Monday, these winds could relax a bit, giving the system a better chance of developing if it can hold together.
This area of low pressure will slowly drift south today and then meander off the coast through Monday. The track beyond Monday looks somewhat uncertain as a few of the tropical forecast models disagree on the exact path.
There's some possibility this wave may drift into Central Florida through the middle of next week, as a few models are hinting, or it could take a track up the east coast and eventually dart northeast, which a few other models suggest.
At this point, the storm's impact on Southwest Florida is expected to be minimal, if we even see any impact at all.
IF this storm manages to develop into a tropical depression or perhaps a named system, it will likely only be a weak storm.

By Meteorologist Jason Dunning

Weather reconnaissance flights
carcah, national hurricane center, miami, fl.
1215 pm edt sun 17 july 2011
subject: Tropical cyclone plan of the day (tcpod)
valid 18/1100z to 19/1100z july 2011
tcpod number.....11-047

i. Atlantic requirements
1. Suspect area
flight one -- teal 72
a. 18/1800z
b. Afxxx 0302a cyclone
c. 18/1500z
d. 28.0n 79.5w
e. 18/1700z to 18/2300z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

flight two -- teal 73
a. 19/0600z
b. Afxxx 0402a cyclone
c. 19/0300z
d. 28.5n 79.5w
e. 19/0500z to 19/1100z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

2. Outlook for succeeding day: Continue 12-hrly
fixes while system remains a threat.
3. Remark: Flight scheduled for 18/1800z will convert to an
low-level invest mission if the flight scheduled for
17/0600z is cancelled.

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt sun jul 17 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 125 miles east of melbourne florida
have changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Upper-level winds have become a little more conducive for
development today...and this system has a medium chance...40percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
as it moves little. An air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
is enroute to investigate the area later today.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster pasch/stewart

They are enroute... not too much longer, and they should reach the edge of it