Thread: Tropical Storm Calvin - SSW of the baja

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

000
abpz20 knhc 062343
twoep

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt wed jul 6 2011

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles
south of acapulco mexico. While the surface circulation has not
become any better defined in the past few hours...environmental
conditions are favorable for further development and a tropical
depression will likely form during the next day or two. There is a
high chance...70 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster brennan

Looks like we'll have another EPAC TD soon . . .

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS
A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
wtpz33 knhc 072038
tcpep3

bulletin
tropical depression three-e advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep032011
200 pm pdt thu jul 07 2011

...tropical depression nearing tropical storm strength...

Summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.4n 103.2w
about 260 mi...415 km sse of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression three-e
was located near latitude 15.4 north...longitude 103.2 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22
km/h. This general motion is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or friday.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...some outer rain bands are approaching the southwestern
coast of mexico.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster avila

Tropical Storm Calvin

Zczc miatcpep3 all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm bulletin
tropical storm calvin advisory number 3
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep
032011800 pm pdt thu jul 07 2011

...depression strengthens into the third tropical storm of the2011 eastern pacific hurricane season...

Summary of 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 104.3wabout 205 mi...335 km s of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches

watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm calvin waslocated near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 104.3 west. Calvin ismoving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/h...and thisgeneral motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple ofdays.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 kmfrom the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------

next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 am pdt.


$$
forecaster stewart
nnnn


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain

000
wtpz33 knhc 080837
tcpep3

bulletin
tropical storm calvin advisory number 4
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep032011
200 am pdt fri jul 08 2011

...calvin strengthens...


Summary of 200 am pdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.3n 105.9w
about 215 mi...345 km ssw of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
minimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm calvin was
located near latitude 16.3 north...longitude 105.9 west. Calvin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/h...and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85 km/h...
With higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so...with weakening expected after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain