Thread: Tropical Storm Arlene- Bay of Campeche

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt tue jun 28 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. The low-level circulation associated with a broad area of lowpressure over the bay of campeche has become better definedtoday...but the accompanying shower activity has changed little inorganization. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually becomemore conducive for development...and the system has the potentialto become a tropical depression later today or on wednesday. Thereis a high chance...70 percent...of this system becoming a tropicalcyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at5 to 10 mph. An air force reserve unit hurricane hunter plane iscurrently investigating the area. Regardless of development...locally heavy rains and gusty winds should continue over portionsof eastern mexico over the next day or two.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours.

$$
forecaster pasch/bergnnnn

Tropical Storm Arlene

000
wtnt21 knhc 282352
tcmat1

tropical storm arlene special forecast/advisory number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012011
0000 utc wed jun 29 2011

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The government of mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the
coast of northeastern mexico from barra de nautla northward to
bahia algodones.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* barra de nautla to bahia algodones

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 21.2n 93.7w at 29/0000z
position accurate within 40 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 6 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt.......100ne 40se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 21.2n 93.7w at 29/0000z
at 28/1800z center was located near 20.9n 93.3w

forecast valid 29/0600z 21.7n 94.6w
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 40se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 29/1800z 22.0n 95.9w
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...100ne 50se 50sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 30/0600z 22.0n 96.9w
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 75sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 22.0n 97.9w
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 50sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 21.5n 100.0w...inland
max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 03/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 21.2n 93.7w

next advisory at 29/0300z

$$
forecaster brown/kimberlain

000
wtnt31 knhc 291147
tcpat1

bulletin
tropical storm arlene intermediate advisory number 3a
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012011
700 am cdt wed jun 29 2011

...arlene expected to make landfall in northeastern mexico early
tomorrow...


Summary of 700 am cdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...21.8n 95.2w
about 175 mi...280 km e of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of northeastern mexico from barra de nautla northward to
bahia algodones

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am cdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm arlene was
located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 95.2 west. Arlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/h. A turn
toward the west is forecast later today. On the forecast track...
Arlene is expected to make landfall along the northeastern coast of
mexico within the warning area early on thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast until landfall on thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...arlene is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the mexican states of
tamaulipas...veracruz...and eastern san luis potosi...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by this evening...which could make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 2 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast...the surge could be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1000 am cdt.

Arlene sure is taking up a lot of real estate. Good thing she's not forecast to make it to hurricane strength before landfall.
The problem will come with the mountainous areas just inland of Tampicl and Veracruz ... mountains + tropical weather systems = great potential for flash flooding and mudslides.

000
wtnt31 knhc 292033
tcpat1

bulletin
tropical storm arlene advisory number 5
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012011
400 pm cdt wed jun 29 2011

...arlene continues heading toward the coast of mexico...


Summary of 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...21.1n 96.1w
about 85 mi...135 km e of tuxpan mexico
about 140 mi...225 km ese of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h
minimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* the coast of eastern mexico from barra de nautla northward to la
cruz

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of eastern mexico from palma sola northward to
la pesca

a hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm arlene was
located near latitude 21.1 north...longitude 96.1 west. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue through thursday. On the forecast
track...the center will cross the coast in the warning area on
thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight...and arlene
could approach hurricane strength prior to landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...arlene is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the mexican states of
tamaulipas...veracruz...eastern san luis potosi...and eastern nuevo
leon...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over
mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by this evening...which could make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory...1000 pm cdt.

$$
forecaster pasch/beven