Thread: Tropical Storm Beatriz -ssw of Cabo Corrientes

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH... 130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
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wtpz32 knhc 210835
tcpep2

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hurricane beatriz advisory number 8
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep022011
200 am pdt tue jun 21 2011

...beatriz continues to strengthen with the center near the coast of
mexico...


Summary of 200 am pdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.8n 104.3w
about 15 mi...20 km s of manzanillo mexico
maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/h
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...977 mb...28.85 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the hurricane warning
east of lazaro cardenas.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from lazaro cardenas northwestward to cabo
corrientes

for storm information specific to your area outside...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of hurricane beatriz was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 104.3 west. Beatriz is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today...with a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest expected tonight and wednesday. On the
forecast track...the center of beatriz should pass near or over
manzanillo during the next few hours...and pass near or over the
coast of mexico between manzanillo and cabo corrientes later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph... 150 km/h...
With higher gusts. Beatriz is a category one hurricane on the
saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible this morning while the center is over water...with
weakening forecast tonight and wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105
miles...165 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions are likely affecting portions of the
coast of mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are also occurring elsewhere within portions of the
warning area.

Rainfall...beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of guerrero...
Jalisco...colima...and michoacan in southwestern mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous
terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...500 am pdt.
Next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster beven

000
wtpz32 knhc 211443
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hurricane beatriz advisory number 9
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep022011
800 am pdt tue jun 21 2011

...beatriz turns toward the northwest...conditions expected to
improve along the coast later today...


Summary of 800 am pdt...1500 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...19.6n 105.5w
about 55 mi...90 km sse of cabo corrientes mexico
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/h
present movement...nw or 310 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...981 mb...28.97 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the hurricane warning
south of la fortuna.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from la fortuna northward to cabo
corrientes

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of hurricane beatriz was
located near latitude 19.6 north...longitude 105.5 west. Beatriz is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/h. A turn toward
the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected in
the next 48 hours. The center of beatriz will begin to move away
from the coast of mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/h...with higher
gusts. Beatriz is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90
miles...150 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb...28.97 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions are likely affecting portions of the
coast of mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are also occurring elsewhere within portions of the
warning area. These winds should begin to diminish later today as
beatriz moves away from the coast.

Rainfall...beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of guerrero...
Jalisco...colima...and michoacan in southwestern mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous
terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today as beatriz
moves away from the coast.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...1100 am pdt.
Next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster brennan

000
wtpz32 knhc 211732
tcpep2

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tropical storm beatriz intermediate advisory number 9a
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep022011
1100 am pdt tue jun 21 2011

...beatriz weakens to a tropical storm...all coastal warnings
discontinued...


Summary of 1100 am pdt...1800 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...19.2n 106.4w
about 95 mi...155 km ssw of cabo corrientes mexico
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...988 mb...29.18 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the hurricane warning from
la fortuna to cabo corrientes.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

None.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am pdt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm beatriz was
located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 106.4 west. Beatriz is
now moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/h. A general
westward or west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected in the next 48 hours. The center of beatriz will
continue moving away from the coast of mexico today.

Satellite images indicate that beatriz has weakened...and maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph...110 km/h...with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next 48
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...winds will continue to diminish along the coast of mexico
today.

Rainfall...beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of guerrero...
Jalisco...colima...and michoacan in southwestern mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous
terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Storm surge...water levels should continue to subside today as
beatriz moves away from the coast.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

000
wtpz32 knhc 212031
tcpep2


bulletin
tropical storm beatriz advisory number 10
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep022011
200 pm pdt tue jun 21 2011

...beatriz weakening quickly...


Summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...19.0n 106.5w
about 110 mi...175 km ssw of cabo corrientes mexico
about 345 mi...560 km se of the southern tip of baja california
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...w or 275 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm beatriz was
located near latitude 19.0 north...longitude 106.5 west. Beatriz is
moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/h...and this motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph...95 km/h...
With higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours...and beatriz is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression on wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches along the coasts of the states of guerrero...
Jalisco...colima...and michoacan in southwestern mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over mountainous
terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Storm surge...water levels should continue to subside today as
beatriz moves away from the coast.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster brennan