Thread: Hurricane Adrian weakens to Cat 1

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
TO THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

000
abpz20 knhc 060541
twoep

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt sun jun 5 2011

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Satellite images during the past few hours indicate the area of
disturbed weather centered about 450 miles south of acapulco has
changed little in organization. However...environmental conditions
remain very favorable for development and there is a high
chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours as it drifts toward the northwest.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

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tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt mon jun 6 2011

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system centered about 425 miles south of acapulco continues to show
signs of organization. Environmental conditions remain favorable
for development and there is a high chance...near 100 percent...of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as
it drifts toward the northwest.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake/stewart
nnnn

Tropical Depression 01-E

tropical depression one-e discussion number 1
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep012011
800 am pdt tue jun 07 2011

the well-defined low pressure system centered about 365 miles south
of acapulco mexico has now developed sufficiently organized deep
convection to be classified a tropical depression...the first of
the 2011 eastern north pacific hurricane season. Satellite
classifications are 2.0 and 1.5 from tafb and sab...respectively.
Based on these data and an ascat pass around 0430 utc...the initial
intensity is set at 25 kt.

The atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite favorable for
intensification. The combination of vertical wind shear less than
10 kt and sea surface temperatures near 30 c should allow the
depression to steadily strengthen for the next 3 to 4 days...which
is unanimously shown by the intensity guidance models. The
official forecast is closest to the ships guidance and brings the
depression to tropical storm strength within 24 hours and to a
hurricane within 3 days. The cyclone is expected to move over
cooler water by the end of the forecast period...which should
result in weakening.

The depression is currently in weak steering currents with a mid- to
upper-level low to its northeast over the gulf of mexico and a
mid-level ridge to its northwest over northern mexico. This
pattern will likely cause a slow northwestward motion for the next
24 to 36 hours. Between 36 and 96 hours...a gradual bend to the
west-northwest is forecast as the ridge strengthens to the north of
the cyclone. By day 5...the ridge is anticipated to weaken due to
an approaching shortwave trough. The official track forecast is
basically a blend of the gfs and ecmwf models. The gfdl and hwrf
models...which move the system northward for the next few days...
Appear unrealistic and are considered outliers at this time.

Forecast positions and max winds

init 07/1500z 11.6n 100.0w 25 kt 30 mph
12h 08/0000z 11.9n 100.2w 30 kt 35 mph
24h 08/1200z 12.5n 100.5w 35 kt 40 mph
36h 09/0000z 13.2n 101.0w 45 kt 50 mph
48h 09/1200z 14.0n 101.9w 55 kt 65 mph
72h 10/1200z 15.1n 103.8w 70 kt 80 mph
96h 11/1200z 15.5n 105.5w 75 kt 85 mph
120h 12/1200z 16.5n 107.5w 65 kt 75 mph

$$
forecaster cangialosi

000
wtpz31 knhc 072042
tcpep1

bulletin
tropical depression one-e advisory number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl ep012011
200 pm pdt tue jun 07 2011

...tropical depression one-e strengthens a little...


Summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...11.7n 100.2w
about 360 mi...580 km s of acapulco mexico
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 3 mph...6 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression one-e
was located near latitude 11.7 north...longitude 100.2 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph...6
km/h...and a motion toward the northwest is expected during the
next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next day.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster hogsett/cangialosi

It's heading for Tropical Storm strength.