Thread: Invest 94L - S of Jamaica

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI... THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt sun jun 5 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized inassociation with a broad low pressure system located about 150miles southwest of jamaica. Although surface pressures are onlyslowly decreasing...some gradual development of this largedisturbance is possible over the next couple of days as winds inthe middle levels of the atmosphere briefly become somewhatfavorable. There is a medium chance...40 percent...of this systembecoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An air forcereserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the lowpressure area monday afternoon...if necessary.
Regardless ofdevelopment...heavy rains could cause flash floods and mud slidesover portions of haiti and jamaica as the system moves slowlytoward the northwest or north over the next few days.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours.
$$
forecaster stewart
nnnn

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon jun 6 2011

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A large low pressure system located over the northwestern caribbean
sea about 90 miles south-southwest of grand cayman is moving slowly
toward the northwest. This system is gradually becoming better
organized and thunderstorm activity has developed closer to the
surface center. Some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form later tonight or
tuesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable. There is a
medium chance...50 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. An air force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
tomorrow afternoon...if necessary. Regardless of development...heavy
rains could cause flash floods and mud slides over portions of
haiti...jamaica...and eastern cuba as the system moves slowly
toward the northwest or north over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster stewart
nnnn

INVEST 94L has been reactivated!

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB

It is near Cuba but getting wicked shear.

Oh, my. That's incredible... it's been hanging around FOREVER!

Shoot.
Movement is to the NE, meaning FL probably won't get any much needed moisture from it.
Bummer