Thread: TS Tomas - final advisory

000
wtnt31 knhc 292358
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm tomas special advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
800 pm ast fri oct 29 2010

...tomas strengthening quickly east of the windward islands...


summary of 800 pm ast...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...11.6n 57.6w
about 170 mi...270 km se of barbados
about 270 mi...435 km ese of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr
minimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* martinique
* st. Lucia
* barbados
* st. Vincent and the grenadines
* grenada
* trinidad and tobago

a tropical storm watch in in effect for...
* dominica

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
24 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 24 hours.

Hurricane warnings may be required for portions of the windward
islands later this evening.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm ast...0000 utc...the center of tropical storm tomas was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 57.6 west. Tomas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track...the center of tomas is expected to pass
through the windward islands saturday afternoon.

air force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and
tomas could become a hurricane by late saturday.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by reconnaissance
aircraft was 999 mb...29.50 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm force winds are expected to spread across the
windward islands later tonight and on saturday.

Rainfall...tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...across portions of the windward and southern leeward
islands.

Storm surge...a storm surge could produce localized coastal flooding
within areas of onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by
large and potentially destructive waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster berg/brown

Storm is over Barbados now/last night, listening to local radio, sounds bad but not disasterous..yet, but you soon realise how relatively primitive the island is as the radio station seems to be co-ordinating emergency calls & giving out medical help

000
wtnt31 knhc 301157
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm tomas intermediate advisory number 4a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
800 am ast sat oct 30 2010

...tomas causes damage on barbados...now heading toward the
northern windward islands at near-hurricane strength...


summary of 800 am ast...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.1n 60.1w
about 70 mi...115 km se of st. Lucia
about 70 mi...115 km e of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr
minimum central pressure...993 mb...29.32 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* barbados
* st. Vincent and the grenadines
* st. Lucia
* martinique

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* trinidad and tobago
* grenada
* dominica

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area outside the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am ast...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm tomas was
located near latitude 13.1 north...longitude 60.1 west. Tomas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward
speed tonight and sunday. On the forecast track...the center of
tomas will pass through the northern windward islands this afternoon
and enter the eastern caribbean sea by tonight.

maximum sustained winds have are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and tomas is expected to become a hurricane later today.

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center. During the past hour...a wind gust to 63 mph...100
km/hr...was reported on barbados. Information from the barbados
meteorological service indicates that damage to homes and downed
power lines have been reported on the island.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by an air force
reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring on barbados...and
will spread across the remainder of the warning area this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
later this morning.

Rainfall...tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...across portions of the windward and southern leeward
islands.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels within areas of
onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by large and
potentially destructive waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster stewart/cangialosi

image to zoom in – Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp0.5 degree .shp

HURRICANE TOMAS

twelfth hurricane of the season bearing down on st. Lucia and st. Vincent



000
wtnt31 knhc 301432
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane tomas advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
1100 am ast sat oct 30 2010

...twelfth hurricane of the season bearing down on st. Lucia
and st. Vincent...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...13.3n 60.7w
about 40 mi...65 km sse of st. Lucia
about 35 mi...55 km e of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr
minimum central pressure...993 mb...29.32 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of barbados has replaced the hurricane warning
with a tropical storm warning for barbados

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* st. Vincent and the grenadines
* st. Lucia
* martinique

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* barbados
* dominica
* trinidad and tobago
* grenada

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of hurricane tomas was
located near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 60.7 west. Tomas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward
speed tonight and sunday. On the forecast track...the center of
tomas will pass near st. Lucia and st. Vincent this afternoon...
And enter the eastern caribbean sea by tonight.

Recent reports from an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...
120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Tomas is a now category one
hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles...280 km. During the past hour...a wind gust to 53 mph...
85 km/hr...was reported on st. Lucia.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by an air force
reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring on st. Lucia...and
will spread across the remainder of the warning area throughout the
day. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area by early afternoon.

Rainfall...tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...across portions of the windward and southern leeward
islands.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels within areas of
onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by large and
potentially destructive waves.


next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtnt31 knhc 302201
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane tomas special advisory number 7
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
600 pm ast sat oct 30 2010

...observations from st. Lucia indicate that tomas has
strengthened...


summary of 600 pm ast...2200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.5n 61.6w
about 45 mi...75 km wsw of st. Lucia
about 30 mi...50 km wnw of st. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/hr
minimum central pressure...982 mb...29.00 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* st. Vincent and the grenadines
* st. Lucia
* martinique

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* dominica
* tobago
* grenada

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within
the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 600 pm ast...2200 utc...the center of hurricane tomas was located
near latitude 13.5 north...longitude 61.6 west. Tomas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and this motion
is expected to continue through sunday. On the forecast track...the
center of tomas will continue to move away from st. Lucia and st.
Vincent this evening.

maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts based on recent reports from the meteorological service of st.
Lucia. Tomas is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane conditions are occurring on st. Lucia and are also
likely occurring within other portions of the hurricane warning
area. These conditions will improve over the next several hours as
tomas moves farther away from the windward islands. Tropical storm
conditions are also occurring on the other islands within the
tropical storm warning area.

Rainfall...tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...across portions of the windward and southern leeward
islands.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels within areas of
onshore flow. The surge will be accompanied by large and
potentially destructive waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster berg/franklin

000
wtnt31 knhc 310246
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane tomas advisory number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
1100 pm ast sat oct 30 2010

...center of tomas now over the eastern caribbean sea...tropical
storm conditions still occurring in portions of the windward
islands...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...13.6n 62.1w
about 65 mi...105 km wnw of st. Vincent
about 75 mi...120 km w of st. Lucia
maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr
minimum central pressure...982 mb...29.00 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the government of barbados has changed the hurricane warning for st.
Vincent and the grenadines to a tropical storm warning.

The government of st. Lucia has changed the hurricane warning for
st. Lucia to a tropical storm warning.

the government of france has changed the hurricane warning for
martinique to a tropical storm warning.

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* dominica
* martinique
* st. Lucia
* st. Vincent and the grenadines
* tobago
* grenada

the government of trinidad and tobago will be discontinuing the
tropical storm warning for tobago and grenada at midnight ast.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of hurricane tomas was
located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 62.1 west. Tomas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue through sunday night...
Followed by a turn toward the west on monday. on the forecast
track...the center of tomas will continue to move away from the
windward islands overnight.

maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Tomas is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles...65 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km. Over the past couple of hours...a wind gust to 53
mph...85 km/hr...was reported on martinique. A wind gust to 49
mph...80 km/hr...was reported on barbados within a rainband well to
the east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane force winds have moved west of the windward
islands. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring on the
islands within the warning area and are expected to continue through
sunday morning.

Rainfall...tomas is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches across portions of the windward and
southern leeward islands through sunday. Isolated maximum storm
total amounts of 8 inches are possible in association with tomas.

Storm surge...large and potentially destructive waves are still
possible...but water levels within the warning area will continue to
diminish overnight.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.
Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$