Thread: TS Tomas - final advisory

Tomaswill be bumped down to a Tropical Storm at 11

There is some expectation of re-strengthening after tomorrow or Tuesday. Mostl ikely after Tuesday.
.

000
wtnt31 knhc 010234
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm tomas advisory number 12
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
1100 pm ast sun oct 31 2010

...tomas continues to weaken over the eastern caribbean sea...


summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...14.2n 66.5w
about 215 mi...350 km ne of curacao
about 265 mi...425 km s of ponce puerto rico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/hr
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr
minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm tomas was
located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 66.5 west. tomas is
moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48
hours.

maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible
over portions of the windward and southern leeward islands
overnight.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
forecaster berg

St Lucia suffered MAJOR damage... There is NO electricity on the island, roads are washed out and bridges are collapsed, and there was 'considerable' damage to homes, businesses, schools, and hospitals. They took the Northern Eye-wall, with winds of 90-100mph. A state of emerhency has been declered.

Dominica is also without power.

Barbados and StVincent also sustained a lot of damage.

The storm began weakening AFTER hitting those islands.

Hey Sheila! Welcome home!

Depending on the speed of the storm, and eactly what happens in the meantime, it will likely be in an area of lesser shear after that, which COULD allow noticaable restrengthening . . .

Let's hope the shear continues to rip it up, as Haiti does NOT need a strengthening storm to hit those tent cities that a big chunk of the population is still calling home.

Thank you.
Good cruise... tired from travel, but wanted to get those reports posted.
More tomorrow.
Good night.

KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent – Hurricane Tomas weakened to a tropical storm Sunday night after tearing off roofs and downing power lines in the eastern Caribbean. Forecasters said it could regain force and veer toward earthquake-stunned Haiti, where some 1.3 million people living under tarps and in tents are vulnerable to heavy rains and wind.

With maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), Tomas slipped under the threshold for a hurricane. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami predicted more weakening during the next 24 hours before it begins to strengthen again around midweek.


Read the entire article by clicking below:

Tomas now tropical storm, expected to strengthen - Yahoo! News

000
wtnt31 knhc 010857
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm tomas advisory number 13...corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al212010
500 am ast mon nov 01 2010

deleted extraneous word in intensity forecast statement

...hurricane hunters find that tomas continues to weaken...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.8n 67.7w
about 135 mi...220 km ne of curacao
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/hr
present movement...w or 260 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm tomas was
located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 67.7 west. Tomas is
moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 48
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over
the next 24 hours...but restrengthening could begin by late
tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

An air force reserve unit hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum
central pressure of 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none


next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster pasch

If the above models pan out for the long range, it looks as if Bermuda will get some more windy weather by the weekend.