Thread: RICHARD - gone ~last advisory

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invest_al992010.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992010
AL, 99, 2010101600, , BEST, 0, 98N, 787W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101606, , BEST, 0, 98N, 793W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101612, , BEST, 0, 98N, 798W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101618, , BEST, 0, 97N, 803W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 95N, 808W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

weather reconnaissance flights
carcah, national hurricane center, miami, fl.
0930 am edt sun 17 october 2010
subject: Tropical cyclone plan of the day (tcpod)
valid 18/1100z to 19/1100z october 2010
tcpod number.....10-138

i. Atlantic requirements
1. Negative reconnaissance requirements.
2. Succeeding day outlook: psbl low level invest
tuesday afternoon near 13.5n and 82.5w.

2 PM TWO. No change.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon oct 18 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located near the eastern coast of
honduras. A portion of the circulation is interacting with land...
And development could be inhibited for that reason. There is a
medium chance...30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generally
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.

a weak low pressure area located about 850 miles west-southwest of
the cape verde islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and a
few showers. Significant development of this system is unlikely...
And there is a low chance...10 percent...of this disturbance
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster cangialosi

18/1745 UTC 15.5N 83.5W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

1st estimate

{sigh}

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue oct 19 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A nearly stationary area of low pressure is centered about 175 miles
southwest of grand cayman. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low have changed little in organization over the past
several hours. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for
development...and this system could become a tropical depression at
any time tonight or wednesday as it remains nearly stationary.
Interests in the northwest caribbean sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. There is a high chance...70
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster pasch

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART