Thread: HURRICANE OTTO- exTropical Storm OTTO NE of G Turk

OTTO = OH NO!!!!
Stay away from Bermuda

I think he plans to,Mindy. He seems to have his sights set on sone place like the Azores

And by then, the'll be a whole lot weaker

tropical storm otto discussion number 17
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172010
500 am ast sun oct 10 2010

the satellite presentation of otto continues to deteriorate. The
low-level center is now completely exposed to the south of a large
shield of cirrus and a few bursts of convection...and the cyclone is
looking increasingly extratropical. The intensity is set at 55 kt
based on a dvorak estimate of t3.0/4.0 from tafb. Strong vertical
shear and colder waters are expected to continue weakening
otto...and the nhc intensity forecast is based on a blend of the
gfs...gfdl...and hwrf models. These models probably have a better
handle on the mid-latitude environment than the ships/lgem
models...which appear to weaken the cyclone too fast. It should be
noted that the gfs and ecmwf re-energize otto by the end of the
forecast period...so the official forecast could be a little low on
days 4 and 5.

Otto is embedded within strong flow to the south of a mid/
upper-level trough and is moving 65 degrees at 34 kt. The flow
ahead of otto is expected to split in the next 24-36 hours...and
this should cause the cyclone to decelerate and turn
southeastward...moving around the apex of a mid-level ridge
extending across the azores. The extratropical low is then
expected to become embedded within a large cyclonic gyre currently
near western europe on days 3 through 5. Based on the new model
guidance...the official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one for the first 36 hours or so. The entire forecast
track is mirrored mainly on a consensus of the gfs...ecmwf...
Ukmet...and gfdl.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 10/0900z 35.3n 45.0w 55 kt
12hr vt 10/1800z 38.1n 39.2w 50 kt...post-trop/extratrop
24hr vt 11/0600z 41.5n 32.4w 45 kt...post-trop/extratrop
36hr vt 11/1800z 43.4n 27.5w 45 kt...post-trop/extratrop
48hr vt 12/0600z 42.4n 25.1w 40 kt...post-trop/extratrop
72hr vt 13/0600z 39.5n 23.5w 35 kt...post-trop/extratrop
96hr vt 14/0600z 37.0n 21.5w 30 kt...post-trop/extratrop
120hr vt 15/0600z 36.5n 19.0w 30 kt...post-trop/extratrop

$$
forecaster berg