Thread: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE..priorTropical depression sixteen

Remains at 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL...SLOW-MOVING...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 24, 2010 – 6:00 PM
We are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Matthew which has developed in the Gulf of Mexico. Based on the current information, we will be making changes to the following itineraries to ensure the safety and comfort of our guests.

Carnival Destiny:
Day Port Arrive Depart
Sat Miami 4:00PM
Sun Fun Day at Sea
Mon Grand Cayman 7:00AM 4:00PM
Tue Ocho Rios 7:30AM 3:30PM
Wed Fun Day at Sea
Thu Miami 8:00AM

Carnival Liberty:
Day Port Arrive Depart
Sat Miami 4:00PM
Sun Fun Day at Sea
Mon Ocho Rios 9:30AM 5:30PM
Tue Grand Cayman 9:00AM 6:00PM
Wed Fun Day at Sea
Thu Cozumel 8:00AM 5:00PM
Fri Fun Day at Sea
Sat Miami 8:00AM

In addition, all of Carnival’s other ships are operating the scheduled itineraries.

We will post updates on Carnival.com as new information becomes available. Most importantly, we look forward to welcoming our guests onboard this weekend.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OFTHIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL...SLOW-MOVING...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILESWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZEDSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$F
ORECASTER PASCH
NNN

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

A BROAD LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
LOW EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE LEVELS VERY WELL COULD REACH NEAR MAXIMUM HISTORICAL
VALUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ic+Outlook

accuweather's take

Reaised to 40%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION JET AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009271821
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

There are several vortex's out there, this one is below Cayman Islands.