Thread: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE..priorTropical depression sixteen

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEACONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTYWINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. TTHERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEFORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONJULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVINGWEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FORSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OFTHIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

From Miami/Ft Lauderdale...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A
PESKY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM SOUTH OF CUBA AND WILL ALLOW
CONSIDERABLE DEEP MOISTURE TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH...WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY BY LATE IN THE DAY. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED EVEN A
BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT ONLY THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS
BECOME WETTER AND ALSO KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FARTHER
WEST...WHERE IT IMPACTS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INCLUDING AT LEAST
THE WEST COAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
MIAMI INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES BY 21Z
TODAY...RISING TO 2.75 INCHES BY 08Z TONIGHT. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS
ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE...THEY ARE A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE
FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. GIVEN
THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...DEEP SATURATION THROUGH H4...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING
IS A CONCERN. THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL MAY BECOME TRAINED
OVER THE SAME LOCALES...WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
PER HOUR QUITE POSSIBLE.

THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE THEN PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST INCLUDING THE METRO AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA.
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES - A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK (ESF) WAS CONTINUED FOR THIS AREA.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ALONG WITH ITS DIGGING
TROUGH...WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...OR TO THE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FARTHER
TO THE EAST...MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE
PUSHED OFF THE MAINLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS QUICKLY
FALL AS DRIER ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY TRY TO FORM IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME...WE OPTED TO MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

000
wtnt21 knhc 281451
tcmat1
tropical depression sixteen forecast/advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al162010
1500 utc tue sep 28 2010

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The government of the cayman islands has issued a tropical storm
warning for all of the cayman islands.

The government of cuba has issued a tropical storm warning for the
cuban provinces from mantanzas eastward to ciego de avila.

The government of the bahamas has issued a tropical storm warning
for the northwestern and central bahamas. This warning includes
the abacos...andros island... Berry islands...bimini...
Eleuthera...grand bahama island...new providence...cat island...
The exumas...long island...rum cay...and san salvador.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the florida coast from
jupiter inlet southward to east cape sable...and for all of the
florida keys...including florida bay and the dry tortugas.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the west coast of florida
from north of east cape sable to chokoloskee and for the east coast
of florida from north of jupiter inlet to sebastian inlet.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the cayman islands
* the provinces of cuba from matanzas eastward to ciego de avila
* the northwestern and central bahamas
* jupiter inlet southward to east cape sable and florida bay
* the florida keys

a tropical storm watch in in effect for...
* north of jupiter inlet to sebastian inlet florida
* north of east cape sable to chokoloskee florida

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 20.6n 82.5w at 28/1500z
position accurate within 40 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 20 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 20.6n 82.5w at 28/1500z
at 28/1200z center was located near 20.2n 82.8w

forecast valid 29/0000z 21.6n 81.8w
max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...150ne 250se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 29/1200z 23.5n 80.7w
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 200se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 30/0000z 26.5n 80.0w
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 200se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 30/1200z 31.0n 78.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 250se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.6n 82.5w

next advisory at 28/2100z

$$
forecaster pasch

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL927 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-282200-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTALBROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-927 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010...FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTFLOODING: INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHTHE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULDFLOOD LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTOTONIGHT...RAINFALL COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND FLOODING MAYOCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. A FLOODWATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THEEXCEPTION OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON.THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNINGSTRIKES...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.TORNADO: THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK OF A WEAK TORNADO FROM LATE THISAFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTCOAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTRISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAYLOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF CUBA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PUSH NORTHEASTALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVYRAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOMEFLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...THOUGHALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS SOME VULNERABILITY.AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANINCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS FORMARINERS COULD DETERIORATE AS WELL..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT SPOTTERSARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INMIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.$$

This is going to be a nightmare for eastern/coastal NC...

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...ONE TODAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND THE GROUND BECOMES
SATURATED. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
ON AS SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.