Thread: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE..priorTropical depression sixteen

This is called the "lawnmower" recon

Flash Flood Watch for Wilmington CWA:

* FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL RIDE
UP AND OVER A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SATURATED GROUND DUE TO RECENT
HEAVY RAINS WILL CREATE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...AND A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT EXISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
SEVEN TO ELEVEN INCHES OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING...WITH SOME ROAD CLOSURES AND PROPERTY DAMAGE
EXPECTED.

And Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-300200-
PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
947 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BECOME HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 WILL
INTERACT WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
LEADING TO SEVEN TO ELEVEN INCHES OF RAIN. THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FLOODING...EXTREMELY ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS...AND SOME MINOR EROSION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

Tropicsl Storm Nicole

Tropical storm nicole advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al162010
1100 am edt wed sep 29 2010

...depression becomes a tropical storm...center still near central
cuba...


Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...22.6n 80.6w
about 120 mi...195 km ese of havana cuba
about 260 mi...420 km sw of nassau
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...ne or 40 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

All tropical storm warnings and watches for florida have been
discontinued.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the cayman islands
* the provinces of cuba from matanzas eastward to ciego de avila
* the northwestern and central bahamas

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the united states...please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm nicole was
located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 80.6 west. Nicole is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A motion to the
northeast accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the
center of nicole will move over the florida straits later this
afternoon...and move near or over the northwestern bahamas tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours...before nicole is absorbed by an extratropical low on
thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles...555 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on surface reports from cuba is
996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the cayman islands...jamaica...and cuba.
Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible over the higher
elevations of cuba and jamaica. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are possible over portions of southern
florida...the florida keys...and the central and northwest bahamas.

Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas today and tonight.

Tornadoes...isolated tornadoes are possible along the immediate
coast of southeastern florida and the florida keys today.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster brown/pasch

Wtnt31 knhc 291745
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm nicole intermediate advisory number 5a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al162010
200 pm edt wed sep 29 2010

...circulation of nicole becoming poorly defined...


Summary of 200 pm edt...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...23.5n 80.6w
about 80 mi...130 km ne of havana cuba
about 225 mi...365 km sw of nassau
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...nne or 25 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/hr
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the cayman islands
* the provinces of cuba from matanzas eastward to ciego de avila
* the northwestern and central bahamas

for storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the united states...please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
aircraft and surface observations indicate that the circulation of
nicole is becoming elongated and less defined.

At 200 pm edt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm nicole was
estimated near latitude 23.5 north...longitude 80.6 west. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A motion
between north-northeast and northeast accompanied by a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track...the center of nicole is forecast to move over
the florida straits this afternoon...and move near or over the
northwestern bahamas tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before nicole is
absorbed by an extratropical low later today or thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles...555 km
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the cayman islands...jamaica...and cuba.
Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible over the higher
elevations of cuba and jamaica. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are possible over portions of southern
florida...the florida keys...and the central and northwest bahamas.

Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas today and tonight.

Tornadoes...isolated tornadoes are possible along the immediate
coast of southeastern florida and the florida keys today.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster brown

We've been having constant drizzles all morning continuing at present. No significant winds as yet, just a bit breezy at times.

WOW you are really lucky Ken

Last Advisory

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN