Thread: TROPICAL DEPRESSION Matthew formerly TS Matthew

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010092112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 118N, 580W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 119N, 592W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 604W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092106, , BEST, 0, 121N, 616W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092112, , BEST, 0, 122N, 628W, 20, 1009, DB

It's certainly got lots of raw matreial to work with

And very warm water with nothing to stop it yet. Could be Matthew

Code ORANGE - 50%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM...INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A
WIND GUST TO 48 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF ST. LUCIA
DURING A HEAVY SQUALL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
NNN

If this doesn't go into Mexico and starts tracking NE we will need a bear watch.

I'm watching anyway!

Remains at 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE
IGOR...THAT HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 125 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Up to 60%

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt wed sep 22 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm lisa...located about 450 miles west-northwest of the cape
verde islands.

1. Surface observations...satellite images...and radar data from
curacao indicate that an area of low pressure has formed over the
south-central caribbean sea. This system has the potential to
become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow as it moves
westward at 15 mph toward the western caribbean. There is a high
chance...60 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of additional
development...squalls are likely to occur over the netherlands
antilles...and the northern coasts of western venezuela and
colombia today. This system also has the potential to produce
heavy rains over portions of central america in a couple days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster avila/berg
nnnn