Thread: Tropical Storm Julia - Atlantic

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARDINTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THEWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS
.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
NNNN

No comment.........&%*@$

Tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt sat sep 11 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm igor...located about 1030 miles west of the cape verde
islands.

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with a
broad area of low pressure located over the eastern caribbean sea.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development...and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves westward into
the central and western caribbean sea. There is a high chance...60
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Regardless of development...locally heavy rainfall
is possible in the northern leeward islands...puerto rico...the
virgin islands...and hispaniola during the next day or so. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...
Especially in mountainous terrain.

satellite imagery and upper-air observations indicate that the
vigorous tropical wave and associated low pressure area near the
west coast of africa have become better organized during the past
several hours. Surface pressures are quite low...and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days as this system
moves toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is
a medium chance...50 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake/brennan

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

2. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
NNNN

90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010



2. satellite pictures indicate that the vigorous tropical wave andassociated low pressure system about 375 miles east-southeast ofthe cape verde islands is becoming better organized. If currenttrends continue...advisories could be initiated tonight or sunday.interests in the cape verde islands should closely monitor theprogress of this system in case watches or watches are required.there is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming atropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generallywestward at 10 to 15 mph.
.$$forecaster kimberlain/bevennnnn

Still at 90% !

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt sun sep 12 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
igor...located about 1275 miles east of the leeward islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are limited in association with a
broad area of low pressure located over the east-central caribbean
sea. However...environmental conditions appear favorable for
development of this system...and a tropical depression could still
form during the next couple of days as it moves westward near 15
mph. There is a high chance...60 percent...of this system becoming
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development...locally heavy rainfall is possible in the virgin
islands...puerto rico...and hispaniola during the next day or so.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides...especially in mountainous terrain.

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to organize in association with
an area of low pressure located about 300 miles east-southeast of
the cape verde islands. If current trends continue...advisories
could be initiated at any time today. Interests in the cape verde
islands should closely monitor the progress of this system in case
watches or watches are required. There is a high chance...90
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

3. A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of bermuda
is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this
system appears unlikely before it is absorbed by a frontal system
in the next day or so. There is a low chance...10 percent...of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as
it moves northward near 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster cangialosi
nnn

"near 100%"

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sun sep 12 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
igor...located about 1230 miles east of the northern leeward
islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located over the east-central caribbean
sea. Environmental conditions still appear favorable for gradual
development of this system...and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15
mph. There is a medium chance...50 percent...of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless
of development...locally heavy rainfall is possible in the virgin
islands...puerto rico...hispaniola...jamaica and cuba during the
next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides...especially in mountainous terrain.

2. Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located about
315 miles east-southeast of the southernmost cape verde islands has
continued to become better organized...and a tropical depression
appears to be forming. If current trends continue...advisories
will be initiated later this morning...and watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of the cape verde islands. There
is a high chance...near 100 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.

3. A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-northeast
of bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower activity.
Development of this system appears unlikely before it is absorbed
by a frontal system in the next day or so. There is a low chance
...10 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours as it moves northward at 20 to 25 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster brenna

Tropical Depression
Number Twelve

Ugh