Thread: Tropical Storm Julia - Atlantic

000
wtnt32 knhc 180830
tcpat2
bulletin
tropical storm julia advisory number 25
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122010
500 am ast sat sep 18 2010

...julia continues to weaken....


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...27.4n 50.1w
about 1525 mi...2450 km wsw of the azores
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...nw or 320 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/hr
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm julia was
located near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 50.1 west. Julia is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected later today...followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast and a decrease in forward speed on
sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr
...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours...and julia could become a tropical depression on
monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster blake

000
wtnt32 knhc 191455
tcpat2
bulletin
tropical storm julia advisory number 30
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122010
1100 am ast sun sep 19 2010

...julia turns sharply toward the east-northeast...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...34.2n 50.3w
about 1325 mi...2130 km w of the azores
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/hr
present movement...ene or 65 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hr
minimum central pressure...998 mb...29.47 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm julia was
located near latitude 34.2 north...longitude 50.3 west. Julia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days...and
julia is forecast to become a remnant low by tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster berg

033
tcdat2
tropical storm julia discussion number 31
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122010
500 pm ast sun sep 19 2010

since this morning...the center of julia has become exposed to the
northwest of a small area of deep convection. Amsu and ascat
estimates from around 1200 utc supported an intensity of 45 kt...so
the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt now that the cyclone is
more strongly sheared. This is also supported by decreasing
t-numbers. The statistical models still show quicker weakening
than the dynamical models...and the official forecast remains near
the intensity consensus. Julia will be battling very strong
northwesterly shear...but it should take some time for the
circulation to spin down. The cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in about 36 hours and then dissipate within the
southwesterly flow east of igor in 48 hours.

After taking a sudden and quick jump to the east-northeast this
morning...julia has settled on a motion of about 50 degrees at 12
kt. The ukmet...gfdl...and gfdn seem to unrealistically turn julia
toward the northwest or north after 24 hours...so the nhc track
forecast is based on a blend of the other major dynamical models.
This track remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 19/2100z 34.8n 49.7w 40 kt
12hr vt 20/0600z 35.4n 48.4w 35 kt
24hr vt 20/1800z 36.3n 46.6w 35 kt
36hr vt 21/0600z 37.7n 44.4w 30 kt...post-trop/remnt low
48hr vt 21/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster berg