Thread: Tropical Deprssion Karl - Dissipated

Windward islands area.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
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201009091204
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 118N, 583W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 587W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 591W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 121N, 596W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 602W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt thu sep 9 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm igor...located about 50 miles south-southeast of the cape
verde islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located near the windward islands are showing some signs
of organization. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
some gradual development as the low moves slowly westward. there is
a medium chance...40 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

Public advisories on igor are issued under wmo header wtnt31 knhc
and under awips header miatcpat1. Forecast/advisories on igor are
issued under wmo header wtnt21 knhc and under awips header
miatcmat1.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/brennan

Not another one!

I'm having trouble keeping up with all of them ....

Oops!
Given where this one is trying to form, it could have a chance of crossing the Caribbean, andthen entering the Gulf!

Dr Jeff Masters is calling this disturbance "Potetially Dangerous "

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean . . . Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. . . .

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. . . . The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. . . . The longer range track of 92L is uncertain. . .The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida.

FULL ARTICLE HERE:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

Remember - You can't put a GREAT deal of stock in models before they have a clearly defined center to initialize on... and at this point, they do NOT. However, I am posting this anyway because they are refernced in the above post.

Remains at 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt fri sep 10 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
depression igor...located about 240 miles west of the cape verde
islands.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
windward islands are associated with a nearly stationary area of
low pressure. The low should begin to drift westward and it appears
that the environment is becoming a little less favorable for
development during the next day or two. There is a medium
chance...30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster avila