Thread: Hurricane Igor - CAT 1 - Leaving Bermuda

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANANTONIO TEXAS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITHTHE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTORICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWTO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEAGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATEDABOUT 400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDEISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOBE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ASTHE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

From the TWD
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BASIN...ANALYZED ALONG 21W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY.

This must be the 2nd one that was still over Africa and the models were on them, this one already had turning in Africa

Yes, it is the second one.

ACCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

groan

335
abnt20 knhc 080551
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt wed sep 8 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The national hurricane center has issued the last advisory on
tropical depression hermine...currently located inland over central
texas about 60 miles south of abilene. Future information on this
system can be found in public advisories issued by the
hydrometeorological prediction center...under awips header tcpat5
and wmo header wtnt35 kwnh...beginning at 400 am cdt.

shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near an
area of low pressure located just south of the southernmost cape
verde islands. Strong upper-level winds over this system are
expected to decrease over the next couple of days...and additional
development is possible as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
There is a medium chance...50 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

the remnants of gaston...located about 140 miles southeast of santo
domingo in the dominican republic...are producing minimal shower
and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is becoming
less likely as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low
chance...10 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours.

Shower activity near a weak area of low pressure located about 525
miles west-northwest of the northernmost cape verde islands has
dissipated. Satellite data indicate that the system is embedded
within a dry and stable environment...and development is not
expected as it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. There is a
low chance...near 0 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster berg

Puerto Rico Forecast Discussion

OVER THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS...WE`LL BE ALSO WATCHING WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE TO BE NAMED
"IGOR" AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTING OVR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS AND WHICH NHC HAS DESIGNATED AS INVEST 91L WITH A
50% CHANCE OF TC FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SYSTEM STILL
6-8 DAYS FROM THREATENING ANY LAND AREAS. THE 08/00Z ECMWF BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM TO 20N AND 60W AND FARTHEST WEST THAN ANY OF THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. RECURVATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH FCST TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ERN NOAM WHICH ECMWF SHOWS THE LEAST
AMPLIFICATION AND GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST. STILL MANY DAYS OUT
WITH A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERRORS IN THE MODELS.