Thread: Hurricane Igor - CAT 1 - Leaving Bermuda

Looks like we are going to be hearing about Igor for a while . . .

000
wtnt31 knhc 090249
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm igor advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 pm ast wed sep 08 2010

...igor continues moving slowly westward...


summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...13.8n 24.6w
about 70 mi...115 km s of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hr
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao tiago...
Fogo...and brava.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area outside the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm igor was
located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 24.6 west. Igor is
moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr. a turn toward the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on
thursday. on the forecast track...the center of igor is expected
to pass south and west of the cape verde islands by thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and igor could become a hurricane by the weekend.

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern cape
verde islands through thursday morning.

Rainfall...igor could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3
inches over portions of the cape verde islands.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.
Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/stewart

000
wtnt31 knhc 090836
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm igor advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
500 am ast thu sep 09 2010

...igor barely a tropical storm...and barely moving...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.8n 24.3w
about 70 mi...110 km s of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...stationary
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao tiago...
Fogo...and brava.

The tropical storm watch will likely be discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm igor was
located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 24.3 west. Igor has
been meandering just south of the cape verde islands but it is
expected to move slowly toward the west-northwest later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected today but
some strengthening should begin on friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
mainly to the south of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern cape
verde islands today. These conditions are expected to end later
today.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am ast.
Next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster avila

Igor is busy ... And apparently, HUNGRY. Looks like he plans on having that other system for lunch. From the TWO:

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR THE WESTERNMOST CAPE HAS WEAKENED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
BECOME ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM IGOR LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest official track has it really starting to gain some latitude on Sunday ... then crossnig 20N by th time it hits 50W on Tuesday.



That would sure be good news for the Lesser Antilles.

Wtnt31 knhc 091430
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm igor advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 am ast thu sep 09 2010

...igor now moving north-northwestward...no change in strength...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...14.7n 24.8w
about 30 mi...45 km wsw of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao tiago...
Fogo...and brava

the tropical storm watch will likely be discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm igor was
located near latitude 14.7 north...longitude 24.8 west. Igor is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A turn
toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85
km...mainly to the west of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds...tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern cape
verde islands for the next several hours. These conditions are
expected to diminish later today or tonight.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/brennan

wtnt41 knhc 091431
tcdat1
tropical storm igor discussion number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 am ast thu sep 09 2010

deep convection formed near the low-level center of igor around 1030
utc...and has expanded since that time. However...this convection
remains west of the center due to about 20 kt of easterly shear
...as shown by uw-cimss analyses. Although an ascat pass around
0000 utc only showed maximum winds of 25-30 kt...the winds are
assumed to be a little stronger now due to the increase in
convection. Therefore...igor will remain a tropical storm with an
initial wind speed estimate of 35 kt. The ships model shows the
easterly shear decreasing over the next few days. This...combined
with warm waters and a relatively moist atmosphere should allow for
steady intensification. The statistical and dynamical intensity
models bring igor to hurricane strength in about 3 days and show
additional strengthening thereafter. The nhc official forecast is
similar to the previous one and is in closest agreement with the
statistical guidance.

Igor has been generally moving north-northwestward during the last
several hours...and the 6-hour initial motion estimate is 330/5.
However...the last few few visible images suggest a slightly faster
northwestward motion. Now that igor appears to have absorbed the
weak low that had been in its vicinity...a low- to mid-level ridge
north and northeast of igor should steer the cyclone westward or
west-northwestward with a gradual increase in forward speed. By
the end of the period...the global models show igor nearing a
central atlantic trough which should cause a northwestward turn.
The official forecast is adjusted to the north in the short-term
due to the initial position and motion...and is a little slower at
the end of the forecast period as suggested by the guidance suite.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 09/1500z 14.7n 24.8w 35 kt
12hr vt 10/0000z 15.0n 26.3w 35 kt
24hr vt 10/1200z 15.8n 29.0w 40 kt
36hr vt 11/0000z 16.4n 32.0w 50 kt
48hr vt 11/1200z 16.7n 35.0w 60 kt
72hr vt 12/1200z 17.3n 40.4w 70 kt
96hr vt 13/1200z 18.5n 44.5w 80 kt
120hr vt 14/1200z 20.0n 48.5w 85 kt

$$
forecaster cangialosi/brennan

Tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm igor intermediate advisory number 5a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
200 pm ast thu sep 09 2010

...igor moving erratically...


Summary of 200 pm ast...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.5n 25.4w
about 65 mi...110 km nw of brava in the cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...nw or 320 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao tiago...
Fogo...and brava

the tropical storm watch will likely be discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm ast...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm igor was
located near latitude 15.5 north...longitude 25.4 west. Igor is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A turn
toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km...
Mainly to the west of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds...tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern cape
verde islands for the next several hours. These conditions are
expected to diminish later today or tonight.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/brennan

000
wtnt31 knhc 092106
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical depression igor advisory number 6...corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
500 pm ast thu sep 09 2010

corrected to indicate that all tropical storm watches have been
discontinued instead of tropical storm warnings

...igor weakens to a tropical depression...


Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 26.4w
about 155 mi...255 km wnw of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hr
present movement...nw or 325 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

All tropical storm watches have been discontinued for the southern
cape verde islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression igor
was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 26.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A
turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph...55 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Next advisory
-------------
next advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/brennan

Igor .... When you all first posted the list of hurricane names for the season, I mentioned the name "Igor" sounded like a monster!