Wtnt31 knhc 211441
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane igor advisory number 54
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 am ast tue sep 21 2010
...igor passing very near cape race newfoundland...almost fully
extratropical...
Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...46.2n 52.8w
about 35 mi...60 km sse of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/hr
present movement...ne or 35 degrees at 46 mph...74 km/hr
minimum central pressure...952 mb...28.11 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from stones cove northward and eastward
to fogo island
a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from burgeo northward and eastward
to triton
* the islands of st-pierre and miquelon
a hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within...in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside the united states...please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of hurricane igor was located
near latitude 46.2 north...longitude 52.8 west. Igor is moving
rapidly toward the northeast near 46 mph...74 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north with a decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight and early wednesday. The extratropical low is
then expected to turn toward the north-northwest and northwest with
an additional decrease in forward speed wednesday night and early
thursday. On this track...the center of igor will continue moving
very close to the southeastern tip of newfoundland today.
Maximum sustained winds reamin near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Igor is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and igor is
likely to become an intense extratropical cyclone later today.
The wind field associated with igor continues to expand. Hurricane
force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460
miles...740 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure based on land and buoy
observations near southeastern newfoundland is 952 mb...28.11
inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...winds of tropical-storm-force/gale-force are expected within
the tropical storm warning area today. Winds of hurricane force
are possible in the hurricane watch area.
Rainfall...the heavy rainfall threat associated with igor will be
coming to an end across newfoundland this afternoon as the storm
moves rapidly northeastward. Additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 3 inches are possible over eastern newfoundland...with storm
total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Surf...large swells will continue to affect the east coast of the
united states through today and the south-facing coastlines of
nova scotia and newfoundland for the next few days. Swells will be
slow to subside in puerto rico...the virgin islands...hispaniola...
And portions of the bahamas during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office for
additional information.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...500 pm ast.
$$
forecaster berg/stewart
000
wtnt41 knhc 211445
tcdat1
hurricane igor discussion number 54
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 am ast tue sep 21 2010
igor is very close to losing all its tropical characteristics and
will likely become fully extratropical by this afternoon. The
initial intensity is being held at 65 kt...although it is possible
that the cyclone has strengthened over the past few hours. Ascat
data should be received from near the hurricane soon...and a
re-assessment of the intensity will be made at that time. Igor
could still gain some strength during the next 12-24 hours as it
moves northward past newfoundland but then all the models show
gradual weakening as it moves near greenland. The official
intensity forecast is a blend of the model guidance...and guidance
provided by the noaa ocean prediction center.
Igor is moving rapidly northeastward at 40 kt. Model guidance is in
good agreement that igor will be turning northward during the next
24 hours as it swings around newfoundland and moves through the
davis straits. The extratropical cyclone is expected to slow down
markedly from 36-96 hours as it interacts and possibly merges with
another area of low pressure off the northeastern coast of quebec.
The official forecast is just a little faster than the previous one
and remains relatively near the model consensus tvcn.
Forecast positions and max winds
initial 21/1500z 46.2n 52.8w 65 kt
12hr vt 22/0000z 50.2n 49.4w 70 kt...post-trop/extratrop
24hr vt 22/1200z 55.3n 48.5w 70 kt...post-trop/extratrop
36hr vt 23/0000z 59.8n 51.6w 65 kt...post-trop/extratrop
48hr vt 23/1200z 62.7n 57.8w 50 kt...post-trop/extratrop
72hr vt 24/1200z 63.5n 61.0w 40 kt...post-trop/extratrop
96hr vt 25/1200z 62.0n 60.5w 40 kt...post-trop/extratrop
120hr vt 26/1200z...dissipated
$$
forecaster berg/stewart
Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.
Bulletin
hurricane igor intermediate advisory number 54a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
200 pm ast tue sep 21 2010
...igor producing gusts to hurricane force over portions of
newfoundland...
Summary of 200 pm ast...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...48.5n 52.0w
about 75 mi...120 km nne of st. Johns newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hr
present movement...ne or 35 degrees at 46 mph...74 km/hr
minimum central pressure...950 mb...28.05 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from stones cove northward and eastward
to fogo island
a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from burgeo northward and eastward
to triton
* the islands of st-pierre and miquelon
a hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within...in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside the united states...please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm ast...1800 utc...the center of hurricane igor was located
near latitude 48.5 north...longitude 52.0 west. Igor is moving
rapidly toward the northeast near 46 mph...74 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north with a decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight and early wednesday. The cyclone is then expected
to turn toward the north-northwest and northwest with an additional
decrease in forward speed wednesday night and early thursday. On
this track...the center of igor will continue to move away from the
island of newfoundland.
Surface observations from canada indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Igor is a
category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale.
Igor is expected to become an intense extratropical cyclone later
today. Bonavista newfoundland recently reported a sustained wind
of 73 mph...117 km/hr...and a gust to 90 mph...144 km/hr.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to
460 miles...740 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...winds of tropical storm force and very near hurricane
force...especially in gusts...are being reported in newfoundland.
These winds will likely diminish later today as igor moves farther
to the north.
Rainfall...the heavy rainfall threat associated with igor will be
coming to an end across newfoundland this afternoon as the storm
moves rapidly northeastward. Additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 3 inches are possible over eastern newfoundland...with storm
total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Surf...large swells will continue to affect the east coast of the
united states through today and the south-facing coastlines of
nova scotia and newfoundland for the next few days. Swells will be
slow to subside in puerto rico...the virgin islands...hispaniola...
And portions of the bahamas during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office for
additional information.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.
$$
forecaster berg
Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.
000
wtnt31 knhc 212031
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane igor advisory number 55
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
500 pm ast tue sep 21 2010
...igor becomes post-tropical...
Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...49.3n 51.7w
about 125 mi...200 km nne of st. Johns newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hr
present movement...nne or 25 degrees at 39 mph...63 km/hr
minimum central pressure...950 mb...28.05 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A hurricane watch is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from stones cove northward and eastward
to fogo island
a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of newfoundland from burgeo northward and eastward
to triton
* the islands of st-pierre and miquelon
these watches and warnings will likely be discontinued this evening
or tonight.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside the united states...please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of post-tropical cyclone igor
was located near latitude 49.3 north...longitude 51.7 west. Igor is
moving toward the north-northeast near 39 mph...63 km/hr. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected by
wednesday...followed by a turn toward the northwest by thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours...but the cyclone should begin to gradually weaken by late
wednesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 520
miles...835 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...winds of tropical storm force and very near hurricane
force...especially in gusts...are occurring in parts of
newfoundland. These winds will likely diminish tonight as igor
moves farther to the north.
Rainfall...the significant rainfall threat over newfoundland
associated with igor has come to an end. Rainfall will be tapering
off this evening as igor moves rapidly north-northeastward.
Surf...large swells along the east coast of the united states will
be subsiding tonight. Swells will be slow to subside in nova
scotia...newfoundland...puerto rico...the virgin islands...
Hispaniola...and portions of the bahamas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather
office for additional information.
Next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on igor. Additional information on this system can be found
in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...
Under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc.
$$
forecaster berg
Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.
Post-tropial ... winds of 80 mph
He just doesn't give up, does he?
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