Thread: Hurricane Igor - CAT 1 - Leaving Bermuda

Oh, man - that one looks wicked!

If those two join forces ...
I guess it's one possiblility ... they're pretty close together.

Well the new fangled #'s that NHC is using has the new one as 42L and the one in front 41L

PREDICT pouch synopsis

Date (UTC): 2010/09/07 13:01
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/07 13:06
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/07 13:42
Pouch Name: PGI42L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 12N 6W

Notes: Two days ago, the models definitely favored PGI42L over PGI41L. Yesterday, ECMWF was the only one that kept that same story. Today, it seems that all of the models are back on the same pageby depicting PGI42L as the storm which absorbs PGI41L ... exceptUKMET, which keeps them as separate, westward-moving pouches.UPDATE: ECMWF just came in ... and the story is different! Although PGI42L is initially a large pouch at analysis, ECMWFdissipates PGI42L quickly as it approaches the west coast ofAfrica, and only PGI41L moves out over the Atlantic. So ECMWFis different from the other models as well as its own previousforecasts.End result: ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS agree that one storm willmove over the Atlantic. UKMET keeps both PGI41L and PGI42L.

ECMWF: Phase Speed: -6.3 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 24hEither dissipates or is absorbed into PGI41L.
GFS: Phase Speed: -8.4 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120hAbsorbs PGI41L at 120 hours
UKMET: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120hWith the same phase speed as that of PGI41L, PGI42L tracksmerrily along behind PGI41L with no direct interaction betweenthem.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.8 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa Track: 120hAbsorbs PGI41L quickly at 24 hours

Other potential systems:

Next AEW still east of 10E.

I think those are "pre-invest" numbers

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt wed sep 8 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

The hydrometeorological prediction center is issuing public
advisories on tropical depression hermine...currently located
inland about 150 miles west-southwest of dallas texas.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is continuing to organize near a
well-defined low pressure area located just south of the
southernmost cape verde islands. Strong upper-level winds over
this system are expected to decrease over the next couple of
days...and this low has the potential to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. There is a high chance...70
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

2. The remnants of gaston...located a couple hundred miles southeast of
the dominican republic...are producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not expected
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance...
Near 0 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again
during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake
nnnn

This is the one we have to watch out for! It could impact our cruise(s).

Tropical Storm
IGOR

000
wtnt31 knhc 081459
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm igor advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112010
1100 am ast wed sep 08 2010

...igor forms in the far eastern tropical atlantic ocean...tropical
storm watch issued for southern cape verde islands...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...13.7n 23.5w
about 95 mi...155 km se of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...w or 265 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of the cape verde islands has issued a tropical storm
watch for the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao
tiago...fogo..and brava.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the southern cape verde islands...including maio...sao tiago...
Fogo...and brava

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm igor was
located near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 23.5 west. Igor is
moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days with some increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track...the center of igor
should pass south of the cape verde islands by tomorrow.

Data from a microwave satellite indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
winds... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern cape
verde islands later today and overnight.

Rainfall...igor could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3
inches over portions of the cape verde islands.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster blake/pasch