Thread: Tropical Depression fiona

000
wtnt33 knhc 031748
tcpat3
bulletin
tropical storm fiona intermediate advisory number 16a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al082010
200 pm ast fri sep 03 2010

...fiona continues moving to the north-northeast...showing signs of
weakening...


Summary of 200 pm ast...1800 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...29.5n 65.9w
about 200 mi...320 km ssw of bermuda
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hr
present movement...nne or 20 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1010 mb...29.83 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* bermuda

for storm information specific to bermuda...please monitor products
issued by the bermuda weather service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm ast...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm fiona was
located near latitude 29.5 north...longitude 65.9 west. Fiona is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with
some increase in forward speed anticipated on sunday. On the
forecast track...the center of fiona should be near bermuda early
saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr... With higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours... And fiona
could become a tropical depression by late saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach bermuda
by late this evening or early saturday morning.

Rainfall...storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible on bermuda.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster blake

Wtnt43 knhc 032035
tcdat3
tropical storm fiona discussion number 17
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al082010
500 pm ast fri sep 03 2010

satellite images indicate that fiona is weakening. The low-level
circulation is becoming distorted with multiple swirls...and only a
meager amount of convection remains. Satellite classifications are
dropping...and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Further
weakening is likely due to strong northerly shear. Dissipation is
probable by sunday...if not sooner...or the system could degenerate
into a remnant low as early as tonight if convection does not
redevelop soon. The chances of tropical-storm-force winds
occurring in bermuda appear to be dropping.

Fiona has turned a little more to the right and is now moving
030/12. A small shift in the guidance has occurred...with all of the
models now showing the center passing just to the east of bermuda.
This appears to be due to fiona becoming a rather shallow system
that is being primarily steered by southwesterly flow around earl.
The official forecast is shifted a little to the right of the
previous one...but still passes close to bermuda. Global models
indicate that the weak system should increase its forward speed as
it moves away from bermuda and decays.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 03/2100z 30.0n 65.5w 35 kt
12hr vt 04/0600z 31.6n 64.7w 30 kt
24hr vt 04/1800z 33.6n 63.5w 25 kt
36hr vt 05/0600z 36.4n 61.7w 20 kt...post-trop/remnt low
48hr vt 05/1800z 39.6n 59.6w 20 kt...post-trop/remnt low
72hr vt 06/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster blake

Wtnt33 knhc 032339
tcpat3
bulletin
tropical depression fiona intermediate advisory number 17a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al082010
800 pm ast fri sep 03 2010

...hurricane hunter aircraft finds fiona weaker...now a tropical
depression...


Summary of 800 pm ast...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...30.9n 65.2w
about 100 mi...160 km ssw of bermuda
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hr
present movement...nne or 20 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1013 mb...29.91 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The bermuda weather service has discontinued the tropical storm
warning for bermuda.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm ast...0000 utc...the center of tropical depression fiona
was located near latitude 30.9 north...longitude 65.2 west. Fiona
is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours with
some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track...the
depression or remnant low is expected to pass near or east of
bermuda early saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph...55 km/hr
...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected and fiona
could degenerate to a remnant low tonight or tomorrow morning.

The latest central pressure reported by an air force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 1013 mb...29.91 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...storm total rainfall amounts of 1 inch or less are
possible on bermuda.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster roberts/brennan

cool

000
wtnt33 knhc 040237
tcpat3
bulletin
tropical depression fiona advisory number 18
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al082010
1100 pm ast fri sep 03 2010

...fiona becomes a remnant low south of bermuda...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...31.4n 64.9w
about 60 mi...100 km s of bermuda
maximum sustained winds...30 mph...45 km/hr
present movement...nne or 25 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1013 mb...29.91 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of the remnant low associated
with former tropical depression fiona was located near latitude 31.4
north...longitude 64.9 west. The remnant low is moving toward the
north-northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr. This motion is expected to
continue during the next 36 hours with some increase in forward
speed before the low dissipates on monday. On the forecast track
...the remnant low is expected to pass near or east of bermuda
saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The low is expected to dissipate on monday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb...29.91 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.

Next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service
...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster roberts/brennan