Thread: Tropical Depression Frank off the mexican coast-EPAC

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tropical storm frank intermediate advisory number 4a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
1100 am pdt sun aug 22 2010

...frank moving westward...continuing to strengthen...


Summary of 1100 am pdt...1800 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...13.9n 95.6w
about 140 mi...220 km sse of puerto angel mexico
about 165 mi...265 km se of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/hr
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from puerto angel westward to punta maldonado

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from salina cruz westward to puerto angel
* the coast of mexico from punta maldonado westward to tecpan de
galeana

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am pdt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm frank was
located near latitude 13.9 north...longitude 95.6 west. Frank is
moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A turn toward the
west-northwest and a gradual increase in forward speed are expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...frank will be
moving parallel to the coast of southern mexico through tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours...and frank could become a
hurricane by monday night or tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions may approach the coast within the
warning area later today and monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area from salina cruz to puerto angel
today...and in the watch area from punta maldonado to tecpan de
galeana by late monday.

Rainfall...frank is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches along the southern coastal region of mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster brennan

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tropical storm frank advisory number 7...corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
200 am pdt mon aug 23 2010

corrected puerto escondido to lagunas de chacahua

...tropical storm warning and watch extended westward along the
coast of mexico...


Summary of 200 am pdt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.3n 97.5w
about 105 mi...170 km ssw of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/hr
minimum central pressure...998 mb...29.47 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
east of lagunas de chacahua...extended the tropical storm warning
west of tecpan de galeana to zihuatanejo...and extended the tropical
storm watch westward to punta san telmo.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from lagunas de chacahua westward to
zihuatanejo

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from west of zihuatanejo to punta san telmo

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area outside the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm frank was
located near latitude 14.3 north...longitude 97.5 west. Frank is
moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected today. On the forecast track...frank
will be moving parallel to the coast of southern mexico through
tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And frank is expected to become a hurricane by late tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions could approach the coast within
the warning area today and tuesday.

Rainfall...frank is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches along the southern coastal region of mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...500 am pdt.
Next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster pasch

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tropical storm frank intermediate advisory number 7a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
500 am pdt mon aug 23 2010

...frank moving a little slower off the coast of mexico...


Summary of 500 am pdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.3n 97.5w
about 105 mi...170 km ssw of puerto escondido mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 4 mph...7 km/hr
minimum central pressure...998 mb...29.47 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from lagunas de chacahua westward to
zihuatanejo

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the coast of mexico from west of zihuatanejo to punta san telmo

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am pdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm frank was
located near latitude 14.3 north...longitude 97.5 west. Frank has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west near 4 mph...7 km/hr.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today and on the
forecast track...frank will be moving parallel to the coast of
southern mexico through tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And it is possible that frank could reach hurricane strength by late
tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions could approach the coast within
the warning area today and tuesday.

Rainfall...frank is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches along the southern coastal region of mexico...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster stewart

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tropical storm frank discussion number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
800 am pdt mon aug 23 2010

the convective pattern associated with frank has eroded considerably
near the center and in the eastern semicircle during the past few
hours due to strong upper-level east-northeasterly shear of at
least 25 kt. Observations from noaa ship nws0020 to the north of
and ship a8sg2 southwest of the center also indicate that the wind
field has not expanded as far as previous expected. Although
satellite intensity estimates at 1200 utc were t3.5/55 kt from both
tafb and sab...the initial intensity is being held at 50 kt due to
the aforementioned decrease in central deep convection.

Microwave fix positions suggest the motion estimate is 285/07. The
mid-level ridge to the north of frank over the u.s. Southern plains
and desert southwest is expected to remain intact through the
forecast period. This flow pattern should keep frank moving in a
general west-northwestward direction and parallel to the mexican
coast. By day 5...the western extent of the ridge is forecast to
weaken...which should result in a decrease in forward speed and
perhaps a slight turn toward the northwest. The official forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory and the model consensus.

The vertical wind shear across the cyclone is not forecast to abate
significantly for the next 48 hours or so. As a result...the
intensity forecast has been trimmed back slightly during that
period. However...by 72-96 hours...vertical shear is expected to
decrease to around 15 kt and also swing around to the east and then
southeast...which should provide a slightly more favorable
environment for strengthening to occur. The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the ships/lgem and gfdl/hwrf intensity
models through 48 hours...and then higher than the models after
that due to the expected decrease in vertical shear.

Based on ship reports indicating a smaller wind field...no changes
to the existing tropical storm warning and watch area for the
pacific coast of mexico are required.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 23/1500z 14.4n 98.2w 50 kt
12hr vt 24/0000z 14.7n 99.2w 55 kt
24hr vt 24/1200z 15.2n 100.7w 60 kt
36hr vt 25/0000z 15.9n 102.2w 60 kt
48hr vt 25/1200z 16.7n 103.9w 65 kt
72hr vt 26/1200z 17.9n 106.7w 65 kt
96hr vt 27/1200z 18.9n 109.6w 70 kt
120hr vt 28/1200z 20.0n 112.0w 70 kt

$$
forecaster stewart

Not looking good for the longer Mexican Riviera cruise that travel further south.