Thread: Tropical Depression Frank off the mexican coast-EPAC

Right now there's a flash flood alert for parts of LA county. Might be related to Hurricane Frank somehow (the moisture...hurricanes never reach up here because the water is too cold).

Flash Flood Warning for Los Angeles County, CA

until 4 pm PDT, Wed., Aug. 25, 2010
Issued by The National Weather Service
Los Angeles, CA
2:09 pm PDT, Wed., Aug. 25, 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA... INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
* UNTIL 400 PM PDT
* AT 155 PM PDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNING AREA.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIG PINES... PEARBLOSSOM... LITTLEROCK... AND LLANO. MAJOR ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE HIGHWAYS 18 AND 138.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.



We're not affected here in the San Fernando Valley. We're just under an "excessive heat warning", but our temperature right now is at 102, so fortunately it dropped a bit.

Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on August 25, 2010

...Frank strengthens a little...

summary of 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...17.2n 107.5wabout 250 mi...405 km SSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexicoabout 425 mi...680 km SSE of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...984 mb...29.06 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 17.2 north...longitude 107.5 west. Frank is movingtoward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A reduction inforward speed is likely to occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with highergusts. Frank is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Little change in strength is forecast duringthe next day or so. However...weakening is expected to begin onFriday as Frank moves over cooler water.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70miles...110 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...200 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Brown

Just hope Frank doesn't make it to Alaska.

Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on August 26, 2010

...Frank moving west-northwestward...some strengthening expected today...

summary of 200 am PDT...0900 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...17.5n 108.7wabout 380 mi...615 km SSE of the southern tip of Baja California maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...984 mb...29.06 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am PDT...0900 UTC...the center of Hurricane Frank was locatednear latitude 17.5 north...longitude 108.7 west. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A reductionin forward speed is likely to occur on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with highergusts. Frank is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonscale. Some strengthening is forecast today...and a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Friday as Frank moves over cooler waters.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70miles...110 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...800 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Roberts/Brennan

wtpz44 knhc 261437
tcdep4
hurricane frank discussion number 20
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
800 am pdt thu aug 26 2010

a 0907 utc trmm overpass showed the presence of an eye on both the
37 and 85 ghz channels...though this feature is not apparent in
conventional satellite imagery. Dvorak classifications have
increased to 90 kt and 77 kt from tafb and sab...respectively.
Objective satellite estimates from uw-cimss are in the 70-75 kt
range. The initial intensity is set at 75 kt...near the lower end of
the estimates...due to the elongated cloud pattern. The hurricane
regional and statistical models show arrested development or
gradual weakening during the next day or so...likely in response to
an increase in east-northeasterly shear. Frank is expected to cross
the 26 degree c sst isotherm in 36-48 hours and a more steady
weakening is anticipated beyond that time. Little change was made
to the intensity forecast...and it is in best agreement with the
lgem intensity model.

The initial motion estimate is 275/10...a little south of the
previous track. Frank is expected to resume a west-northwestward
motion during the next 12-24 hours as it is steered by a mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern united states. Thereafter...a
turn to the northwest and then north with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast as a deep layer trough amplifies near the west
coast of the united states. The nhc official track forecast is
nudged slightly to the south of the previous one for the next 36-48
hours...to account for the initial position and motion...and is
otherwise similar.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 26/1500z 17.4n 109.3w 75 kt
12hr vt 27/0000z 17.8n 110.8w 75 kt
24hr vt 27/1200z 18.2n 112.2w 70 kt
36hr vt 28/0000z 18.9n 113.3w 65 kt
48hr vt 28/1200z 19.6n 113.9w 55 kt
72hr vt 29/1200z 21.0n 114.0w 45 kt
96hr vt 30/1200z 22.0n 114.0w 30 kt
120hr vt 31/1200z 23.0n 114.0w 25 kt...post-trop/remnt low

$$
forecaster cangialosi

Holy Cow.
He sure is a fickle one, isn't he?

000
wtpz34 knhc 270232
tcpep4
bulletin
hurricane frank advisory number 22
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092010
800 pm pdt thu aug 26 2010

...compact frank passing south of socorro island...


Summary of 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.2n 111.2w
about 335 mi...540 km ssw of the southern tip of baja california
maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr
minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...the center of hurricane frank was located
near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 111.2 west. Frank is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A turn toward the
northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or so. Frank is forecast to turn northward
on saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Frank is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Gradual weakening is expected friday
followed by a more steady weakening on saturday as frank moves
over cool waters.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80
miles...130 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...200 am pdt.

$$
forecaster brown

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on August 28, 2010

...Frank becomes a remnant low...

summary of 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.8n 112.3w
about 210 mi...340 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hr
present movement...N or 10 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches

watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the remnant low of Frank was located nearlatitude 20.8 north...longitude 112.3 west. The low is movingtoward the north near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A gradual turn toward thenorth-northeast and then northeast with a decrease in forward speedis expected until dissipation.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with highergusts. Additional weakening is expected...and the remnant low ofFrank is forecast to dissipate in a day or two.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.

Next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the National HurricaneCenter on this system. For additional information on the remnant lowplease see high seas forecasts issued by the National WeatherService...under AWIPS header nfdhsfepi and WMO header fzpn02 kwbc.


$$Forecaster Kimberlain