Thread: HURRICANE DANIELLE cat 1 weakening

Originally Posted by sue miller

That's right, it bears watching and taking the storm seriously, lol.

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wtnt31 knhc 230832
tcpat1
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tropical storm danielle advisory number 7
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
500 am ast mon aug 23 2010

...danielle strengthens some more...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.8n 37.1w
about 850 mi...1365 km w of the southernmost cape verde islands
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 300 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hr
minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm danielle was
located near latitude 14.8 north...longitude 37.1 west. Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to
continue through tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast...and danielle is
likely to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster kimberlain

Looks like they have backed off a little on the 5 day intensity estimate... yesterday, they had it reaching 100 mph by Friday. Now, it's Saturday.

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tcdat1
tropical storm danielle discussion number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
1100 am ast mon aug 23 2010

at 1028 utc...an ssmis microwave pass indicated that danielle was
still under the influence of east-northeasterly shear with the
low-level center located on the eastern edge of the deep
convection. However...the shear appears to be slowly decreasing...
And curved banding has become more prominent over the past few
hours. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt based on dvorak
final t-numbers of 3.5 from tafb and sab.

A few recent microwave images indicate that the low-level center is
a little south of previous estimates...the the initial motion is
now 290/14. The longwave pattern over the atlantic is expected to
change little over the next few days...and a break in the
subtropical ridge near 45w should allow the cyclone to turn toward
the northwest within the next 36-48 hours. Once this happens...the
ridge over the western atlantic is expected to block the westward
movement of danielle and force it to turn north-northwestward by
day 5. The model guidance is tightly clustered through day 5...and
little change from the previous forecast was needed. It should be
noted that the tight clustering of the model guidance indicates that
confidence in this track forecast is higher than normal.

The intensity guidance continues to show steady strengthening
over the next 36 to 48 hours with the help of low vertical shear and
warm ocean waters. As compared to yesterday...however...the ships
and lgem statistical models now show more intensification than the
gfdl and hwrf dynamical models. The official forecast is close to
the ships and lgem models for the first 72 hours but then very
close to the consensus and previous forecast thereafter. The rapid
intensification index is currently near 40 percent...so there is
some chance that danielle could strengthen a little faster during
the next 24 hours than indicated in the forecast. By days 3
through 5...vertical shear could increase as danielle approaches a
longwave trough over the western atlantic... So for now the
intensity is held near the lower end of category 2 strength. There
is now a 1 in 4 chance...higher than yesterday...that danielle
could become a major hurricane during the next 5 days based on
historical nhc intensity errors.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 23/1500z 15.1n 39.4w 55 kt
12hr vt 24/0000z 16.0n 41.5w 65 kt
24hr vt 24/1200z 17.3n 44.5w 75 kt
36hr vt 25/0000z 18.9n 47.2w 80 kt
48hr vt 25/1200z 20.8n 49.5w 85 kt
72hr vt 26/1200z 24.5n 53.5w 90 kt
96hr vt 27/1200z 27.0n 55.5w 90 kt
120hr vt 28/1200z 29.5n 57.0w 90 kt

$$
forecaster berg

WHEN and WHERE she makes that turn to the northwest is crucial in whether she missdses Bermuda completely or not.

18z Best Track updates to Hurricane Danielle!!

AL, 06, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 152N, 407W, 65, 987, HU


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Has the fist