Thread: HURRICANE DANIELLE cat 1 weakening

118
wtnt41 knhc 290248
tcdat1
hurricane danielle discussion number 31
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
1100 pm ast sat aug 28 2010

convection in the outer eyewall of danielle has become deeper during
the past several hours...with an occasional cell even firing near
the decayed inner eyewall. Satellite classifications are the
basically the same as before...so the initial intensity remains 90
kt. A slow weakening is expected as the cyclone moves over cooler
waters and increasing southwesterly shear. Most of the global
models show danielle becoming a large and powerful extratropical
hurricane over the north atlantic...and the nhc intensity forecast
is basically an update of the previous one. It is possible that
extratropical transition could begin sooner than shown below...as
suggested by a few models.

The initial motion estimate is faster than before...030/17. Danielle
is currently accelerating toward the north-northeast as an upper
trough dives into the west atlantic ocean. In 24-36 hours...the
the tropical cyclone should briefly slow down due to a fast-moving
mid-latitude ridge to its north. Increasing southwesterly flow
between a large central atlantic ridge and another mid-latitude
trough should then cause danielle to begin moving rather quickly to
the northeast in a few days. While most of the models are in
reasonable agreement before the system becomes extratropical...they
wildly diverge from that point onward. The nhc forecast is
adjusted east of the previous one...close to a blend of the
ecmwf/gfs.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 29/0300z 31.5n 58.8w 90 kt
12hr vt 29/1200z 34.2n 56.8w 85 kt
24hr vt 30/0000z 37.5n 54.7w 75 kt
36hr vt 30/1200z 39.4n 52.5w 70 kt
48hr vt 31/0000z 40.8n 48.7w 65 kt
72hr vt 01/0000z 45.0n 34.0w 65 kt...post-trop/extratrop
96hr vt 02/0000z 52.5n 30.0w 55 kt...post-trop/extratrop
120hr vt 03/0000z...absorbed

$$
forecaster blake

000
wtnt31 knhc 292047
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane danielle advisory number 34
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
500 pm ast sun aug 29 2010

...danielle continues as a hurricane over the open atlantic ocean...


Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...38.0n 54.5w
about 605 mi...975 km s of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hr
present movement...nne or 25 degrees at 29 mph...46 km/hr
minimum central pressure...977 mb...28.85 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of hurricane danielle was
located near latitude 38.0 north...longitude 54.5 west. Danielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 29 mph...46 km/hr. The
cyclone is predicted to move toward the northeast at a slower speed
during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Danielle is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. It is anticipated that the cyclone will become a large
and powerful extratropical cyclone in about two days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310
miles...500 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
surf...large waves and dangerous surf conditions should diminish
near bermuda today. Swells from danielle are expected to gradually
subside during the next day or two along portions of the united
states east coast. Please monitor products issued by your local
weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster landsea/berg

Wtnt31 knhc 300250
tcpat1
bulletin
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 35
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL al062010
1100 pm ast Sun Aug 29 2010

...Danielle Moving Slower And Weakening Over The Open North
Atlantic Ocean...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...39.3n 53.0w
about 510 mi...825 km s of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hr
present movement...ne or 45 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/hr
minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of Hurricane Danielle was
located near latitude 39.3 north...longitude 53.0 west. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Danielle is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours...and Danielle is expected to become a large and powerful
Extratropical cyclone on Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310
miles...500 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
Surf...large waves and dangerous surf conditions should diminish
near Bermuda tonight and Monday. Swells from Danielle are expected
to gradually subside during the next day or two along portions of
the united states east coast. Please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
wtnt31 knhc 300843
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane danielle advisory number 36
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
500 am ast mon aug 30 2010

...danielle weakening and quickly losing tropical characteristics
over the far north atlantic ocean...


Summary of 500 am ast...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...40.4n 52.0w
about 440 mi...705 km s of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/hr
present movement...ne or 40 degrees at 17 mph...28 km/hr
minimum central pressure...984 mb...29.06 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of hurricane danielle was
located near latitude 40.4 north...longitude 52.0 west. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Danielle is still a category one hurricane on the
saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale...but additional weakening is
forecast during the next 24 hours. Danielle is expected to lose
its tropical characteristics later today...and become a large and
powerful extratropical cyclone over the cold waters of the north
atlantic.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310
miles...500 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb...29.06 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
surf...large waves and dangerous surf conditions should diminish
near bermuda later today. Swells from danielle are expected
to gradually subside during the next day or so along portions of
the united states east coast. Please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster stewart

000
wtnt31 knhc 301448
tcpat1
bulletin
hurricane danielle advisory number 37
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
1100 am ast mon aug 30 2010

...danielle maintaining hurricane status in the open atlantic
ocean...


Summary of 1100 am ast...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...40.9n 50.7w
about 420 mi...675 km sse of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...75 mph...120 km/hr
present movement...ne or 45 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/hr
minimum central pressure...970 mb...28.64 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of hurricane danielle was
located near latitude 40.9 north...longitude 50.7 west. Danielle is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph...26 km/hr. The cyclone is
expected to continue in this general direction at a faster speed
during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Danielle is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours and the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics later today. However...danielle will still remain
a large and powerful cyclone over the far north atlantic for the
next two days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310
miles...500 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
surf...large waves...and dangerous surf conditions should diminish
near bermuda later today. Swells from danielle are expected
to gradually subside later today along portions of the united states
east coast. Additionally...waves near 10 feet...3 meters...are
expected to develop by this afternoon along portions of the island
of newfoundland canada. Please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster landsea/berg

858
wtnt21 knhc 310235
tcmat1
tropical storm danielle forecast/advisory number 39
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062010
0300 utc tue aug 31 2010

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical storm center located near 41.3n 47.1w at 31/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the east or 80 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 975 mb
max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 90ne 120se 90sw 90nw.
34 kt.......180ne 240se 240sw 210nw.
12 ft seas..330ne 550se 450sw 340nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 41.3n 47.1w at 31/0300z
at 31/0000z center was located near 41.2n 48.0w

forecast valid 31/1200z 42.3n 41.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 180se 150sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 270se 240sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 44.3n 34.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 180se 150sw 0nw.
34 kt...180ne 270se 240sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 47.0n 26.6w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 50.7n 22.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...180ne 180se 90sw 90nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/0000z...absorbed

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 41.3n 47.1w

this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the
national hurricane center on this system. Additional information on
this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
national weather service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo
header fznt01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster kimberlain

Whew! And that's the end of that one!
Hope the remnants of this system doesn't interfere with shipping in the North Atlantic.