Thread: EX TD 5- formerly Inv 94L -SW Florida - CODE RED

200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010


2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

It's almost offshore of us at this time - just S of ju, I think (we are165 mi S of Jas)
We have had lots of rain, some moderate winds from this today.
Also some thinder / lightening

It's forecast to cross the state, and get into the Gulf. Further development (if any) would probably not occur until it is in the GoM.

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt mon aug 9 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 950 miles
east-northeast of the leeward islands is moving west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has recently
developed closer to the center...and any significant organization
of the thunderstorms during the next couple of days could result in
the formation of a tropical depression. There is a high
chance...70 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours.

2. A broad surface low over southern florida is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
bahamas across the florida keys into the southeastern gulf of
mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development over the next couple of days as the system moves to
the west or west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the gulf of mexico.
There is a low chance...20 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours...though conditions could
become a little more conducive for development after that time.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

We may get more rain today....it's very sunny at the moment.

Our forecast says 80% chance of percipitation. At least that's what it said dlast night. Haven't checked the local one this sorning yet

Zczc miatwoat al
lttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon aug 9 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A low pressure area located about 900 miles east-northeast of theleeward islands is moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.although shower and thunderstorm activity has recently weakened...any significant organization of the thunderstorms during the nextcouple of days could result in the formation of a tropical cyclone. There is a high chance...70 percent...of this system becoming atropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

2. A broad surface low over the southeastern gulf of mexico just offshore of southwestern florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern bahamas across the florida keys into the gulf of mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development over the next couple of days as the system moves to the west orwest-northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the gulf of mexico. There is a medium chance...30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake
nnnn

Recon tentatively scheduled for tomorrow